COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANALYSIS
Thursday's game Florida State is 0-3 in ACC, losing by 4-7-5 points, giving up 38.3 ppg; 14 of 22 guys on their two-deep defensive chart are freshmen/sophs, and that youth is catching up with them. North Carolina hasn't played a I-A team in 19 days, losing last two, scoring total of 10 points in losing its two ACC games, 24-7/16-3. Seminoles won seven of last eight games vs Tar Heels, winning last three by combined score of 115-30. Florida St. failed to cover its last five weeknight games. Tar Heels turned ball over nine times in four games against I-A opponents.
Friday's game
Rutgers won last five games vs Army by average score of 37-9; Knights are in Pitt/UConn sandwich- they're 2-2 vs I-A teams, scoring 15-17 in losses to Cincy/Pitt, 23-34 in wins over FIU (23-15), Maryland (34-13). Army lost three of last four games, scoring 16 or less points in all four of the games- they're 2-3 as underdog this year. Rutgers is +14 in turnovers the last five games but Army only turned ball over four times in their last five games. Big East favorites are 6-7 out of conference, 4-3 on the road.
Saturday's games
Top games
Home side won 10 of last 12 Georgia Tech-Virginia games; Tech lost last six visits to UVa, despite being favored in three of them. Cavaliers won last three games after 0-3 start, allowing 3-7-9 points; they held Jackets to 156 rushing yards in LY's 24-17 upset win in Atlanta (+14). Home underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in ACC conference play. Tech won its last four games (4-0 vs spread) scoring an average of 35.8 ppg.
Miami is 3-0 at home in '09, beating Ga Tech (33-17), Oklahoma (21-20) 'canes covered two of their last nine as home favorite. Erratic Clemson is 0-2 on road this year, losing both games by FG at Ga Tech (30-27) and Maryland (24-21). Tigers held four of six foes under 50% passing, but are 14 of last 43 on third down- they came off bye last week and waxed Wake Forest, 38-3. Last four Clemson games stayed under the total.
Pitt split its six games with South Florida, visitor winning four of the six. Road team won Daniels' first three starts as USF QB, with Bulls winning at Florida State (17-7), Syracuse (34-20). Pitt is 4-2 as favorite this year; they scored 35-24-24 points in winning last three weeks. Senior QB vs freshman QB, advantage Panthers. Four of the last five Pitt games stayed under the total. Bulls are 1-1 as an underdog this season.
Starting CB for UConn was murdered outside party week ago; this is the first game for Huskies since then, against West Virginia team that they're 0-5 against, losing by average score of 43-15. Mountaineers won four of five vs I-A foes, despite turning ball over 17 times in the five contests. UConn won three of last four games, is 5-1 vs spread in last six, 3-0 as an underdog this season. Big East home teams are 1-7 vs spread in '09.
Boston College has been hideous on road, losing 25-7 at Clemson (+6), 48-14 at Va Tech (+14); they combined to complete 16 of 49 passes for paltry 143 yards in those two games, but they've beaten Notre Dame six times in row, winning three in row and four of last five in South Bend. Irish are 1-4 as favorite this year; only one of their four wins (Nevada) is by more than seven points. Last four BC games went over the total.
Washington plays close games, but let one get away in desert last week, as ASU hit 50-yard pass with 0:13 left when Huskies could have run it and not given ball back to ASU in last 0:25- their last three games came down to last couple minutes. U-Dub is 4-2 as dog this year, 0-5 in last five games of series; home side is 7-2 vs the spread in this bitter rivalry. Oregon won its last five games, scoring 37.2 ppg, covered last four.
Penn State covered five of last six as road favorite, but lost nine of last 10 to Michigan, losing last five visits here, last three all by five points or less. Lions' only previous road game was 35-17 win at crumbling Illinois (-7)- they've outscored I-A foes 96-11 in first half of games this season. Wolverines lost last two vs I-A foes, 26-20 in OT at East Lansing (+2), 30-28 at Iowa (+8). Big 11 home underdogs are 2-4 against the spread.

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