Soccer Power Ratings

[farbror]

Soccer Power Ratings

These ratings have been fairly succesfull for betting short home favourites. The home win frequency in EPL is fairly stable at, say, 45% which corresponds to a decimal odds of 2.25 (+125). Look for match-ups in the “+/-2″ region and bet on the home team if the odds is juicy.
Example: Hull - Fulham
The difference in Power Rating is -4 - (-3) = -1 and the odds is 2.60 (+160).

	Power		Power
Manchester United	8	Inter	7
Chelsea	7	Milan	6
Arsenal	6	Roma	5
Liverpool	5	Juventus	4
Tottenham	4	Fiorentina	3
Aston Villa	3	Sampdoria	2
Everton	2	Udinese	1
Manchester City	1	Napoli	0
Newcastle	0	Lazio	0
Portsmouth	0	Genoa	-1
Blackburn	-1	Palermo	-1
West Ham	-1	Atalanta	-2
Middlesbrough	-2	Torino	-2
Sunderland	-2	Calgari	-2
Bolton	-3	Siena	-2
Fulham	-3	Chievo	-3
Wigan	-3	Bologna	-3
West Brom.	-4	Catania	-3
Hull	-4	Reggiana	-4
Stoke	-5	Lecce	-4

My full card:
1 Aston Villa @ 2.00
2 Hull @ 2.60
3 Middlesbrough @ 3.20
4 Cagliari @ 2.62
5 Chievo @ 2.20
6 Fiorentina @ 2.62
7 Udinese @ 2.10
(35 three-teamers)

[The General]

Thanks bud, much appreciated. I like some soccer , also.

[farbror]

I hope we will mail a few snappy multi-teamers.

[farbror]

A nice start on my card if I may say so? Still a lot of things can go wrong but it will be exciting tomorrow.

[Dirty]

Good luck farbror

[farbror]

1 Everton @ 2.10
2 Hull @ 2.50
3 Aston Villa @ 3.30
4 Norwich @ 3.25
5 Wolverhampton @ 1.80
(10 three-teamers)

[Dirty]

Good luck and Thanks

[farbror]

My full card:
1 Aston Villa @ 2.00, Won
2 Hull @ 2.60, Won
3 Middlesbrough @ 3.20, Won
4 Cagliari @ 2.62
5 Chievo @ 2.20
6 Fiorentina @ 2.62
7 Udinese @ 2.10, Won
(35 three-teamers)

Fiorentina is a night game. The other two just started. I could use some lucky bounces after getting killed at Kiddy Football!

[Dirty]

Hope you turn it around Pal

[farbror]

EPL		CHP		Serie A		La Liga
Arsenal	6	Birmingham	5	Atalanta	0	Almeira	1
Aston Villa	2	Barnsley	-3	Bologna	-2	Atletico Bilbao	-3
Blackburn	-3	Blackpool	-3	Cagliari	-5	Atletico Madrid	7
Bolton	-1	Bristol City	3	Catania	-2	Barcelona	3
Chelsea	7	Burnley	-5	Chievo	-1	Deportivo Coruna	2
Everton	-2	Cardiff	1	Fiorentina	3	Espanyol	1
Fulham	-2	Charlton	1	Genoa	-2	Getafe	1
Hull	-7	Coventry	-2	Inter	6	Malaga	-7
Liverpool	4	Crystal Palace	-3	Juventus	3	Numancia	-1
ManCity	5	Derby	-3	Lazio	3	Osasuna	-2
ManUTD	6	Doncaster	-1	Lecce	-6	Real Betis	-2
Middlesbrough	0	Ipswich	0	Milan	4	Real Madrid	4
Newcastle	-2	Norwich	-2	Napoli	0	Mallorca	-2
Portsmouth	-1	Nottingham	-5	Palermo	-3	Sporting Gijon	-4
Stoke	-4	Plymouth	-4	Reggina	-4	Valladolid	-3
Sunderland	-4	Preston	3	Roma	4	Recreativo de Huelva	-2
Tottenham	1	Queens Park	2	Sampdoria	2	Racing Santander	-1
West Brom.	-4	Reading	4	Siena	-3	Sevilla	3
West Ham	0	Sheffield Utd	5	Torino	1	Valencia	5
Wigan	1	Sheffield Wed.	-1	Udinese	3	Villareal	2
		Southampton	-2
		Swansea	0
		Watford	1
		Wolverhampton	9

[farbror]

The Guru's picks for the weekend in bold:
13 Sep 13:45 Liverpool v Man Utd 2.80 or better
13 Sep 16:00 Blackburn v Arsenal 4.50 or better
13 Sep 16:00 Wigan v Sunderland 2.00 or better
13 Sep 16:00 Sheff Wed v Watford 2.50 or better
13 Sep 18:00 Palermo v Roma 3.40 or better
14 Sep 15:00 Genua v AC Milan 4.20 or better
14 Sep 15:00 Napoli v Fiorentina 2.40 or better

Note: Decimal odds above 2.00 are easily interpreted as moneyline odds (2.00 = +100, 3.80 = +280 etc)

Local swedish times. Do the Math :D

[The General]

My friend

[farbror]

Here are my bets:


Liverpool (3.10), Blackburn (4.78), Wigan (2.07), Sheff Wed (2.50), Palermo (3.67), Genua (5.00) & Napoli (2.71)

It was possible to get slightly better odds

[zyklon]

The Guru's picks for the weekend in bold:
13 Sep 13:45 Liverpool v Man Utd 2.80 or better
13 Sep 16:00 Blackburn v Arsenal 4.50 or better
13 Sep 16:00 Wigan v Sunderland 2.00 or better
13 Sep 16:00 Sheff Wed v Watford 2.50 or better
13 Sep 18:00 Palermo v Roma 3.40 or better
14 Sep 15:00 Genua v AC Milan 4.20 or better
14 Sep 15:00 Napoli v Fiorentina 2.40 or better

Note: Decimal odds above 2.00 are easily interpreted as moneyline odds (2.00 = +100, 3.80 = +280 etc)

Local swedish times. Do the Math :D

Hello, please could better explain the operation?
For example:
Blackburb-Arsenal back in Power Rating: Arsenal 6 Blackburn -3, so the formula would be made -3 +6?
Can you give an example easier. Thank you

[farbror]

Sorry!
I have not provided all details. In my database I have estimated the winning chances for, say, a team playing at home with a power rating of -3 playing an away team with a rating of 6. If the avilable odds are better that what this estimate suggests, then we have a bet.

The average home win % for the leagues I follow is around 45% which correspondes to 2.22 (+122). If two teams of equal strength are playing, then basically I bet the home team if the odds is larger than the breakeven odds.

(there might of course be other factors to be put into consideration)

Did that help?

[zyklon]

Sorry!
I have not provided all details. In my database I have estimated the winning chances for, say, a team playing at home with a power rating of -3 playing an away team with a rating of 6. If the avilable odds are better that what this estimate suggests, then we have a bet.

The average home win % for the leagues I follow is around 45% which correspondes to 2.22 (+122). If two teams of equal strength are playing, then basically I bet the home team if the odds is larger than the breakeven odds.

(there might of course be other factors to be put into consideration)

Did that help?

Unfortunately I believe that they have not understood well. You have talked about that in the calculation of the formula the result must be greater than 2 or less than 2. I might better explain the calculation and in which case we should choose the right prediction be made?
Sorry if you do not speak good English, but are Italian and you write through a translation software.
However, if you can not answer me not to worry, fits the same.
Congratulations to the winners of prone PALERMO, SHEFFIELD and LIVERPOOL.

[farbror]

You are quite right. I bet mostly on close games but I thought Blackburn would give Arsenal some resistance. I was very wrong. The rest of my card did OK

[zyklon]

Good, good and congratulations Farbor... Genoa WON and Napoli WON

[farbror]

Soccer has been very kind to me!

[dmmd98]

Soccer has been very kind to me!

Great picks this weekend, congrats.