Free Lunch? Please check my math and estimates!

[farbror]

"A friend suggested the following strategy:

• Bet two 13pts teasers based on four teams
• Use one of the teams as a “banker”
• Try for a middle on the other three games

Three team teasers can bet bet at -120 (ties loose)
Three possible outcomes (assuming two 100USD bets):
Banker wins and all middles hit +200USD
Banker wins and at least one middle fail -20USD
Banker fails -240USD

The Guru estimated the probabilities for the three outcomes using all home games in his database (4697 games). Based on these games, the ATS marign is -12.5 or better in 3981 games (”Banker wins” 84.8%) and the ATS margin is between -12.5 and +12.5 in 3159 games (”Hits midle” 67.3%).

So, we are able to estimate the EV of the suggested “two teaser strategy”
200 * 0.848 * 0.673 * 0.673 * 0.673 - 20 * 0.848 * (1 - 0.673 * 0.673 * 0.673 ) -240 * (1 - 0.848) = +3.43USD

This sounds too good to be true! The Guru will check the numbers tomorrow."

I hope this makes sense? It is almost 4am as I write so my brain is not working properly!

[Dirty]

be interesting to see

[bilbal]

"A friend suggested the following strategy:

• Bet two 13pts teasers based on four teams
• Use one of the teams as a “banker”
• Try for a middle on the other three games

Three team teasers can bet bet at -120 (ties loose)
Three possible outcomes (assuming two 100USD bets):
Banker wins and all middles hit +200USD
Banker wins and at least one middle fail -20USD
Banker fails -240USD

The Guru estimated the probabilities for the three outcomes using all home games in his database (4697 games). Based on these games, the ATS marign is -12.5 or better in 3981 games (”Banker wins” 84.8%) and the ATS margin is between -12.5 and +12.5 in 3159 games (”Hits midle” 67.3%).

So, we are able to estimate the EV of the suggested “two teaser strategy”
200 * 0.848 * 0.673 * 0.673 * 0.673 - 20 * 0.848 * (1 - 0.673 * 0.673 * 0.673 ) -240 * (1 - 0.848) = +3.43USD

This sounds too good to be true! The Guru will check the numbers tomorrow."

I hope this makes sense? It is almost 4am as I write so my brain is not working properly!

Fabror the guru is everywhere!
Friends don't let friends apply math to teasers!

[farbror]

Hehehe, I try to be a buisy bee!