The Most Interesting Line of the Week

[reeling]

The Colts are coming off a victory in the most watched game of the year; the Ravens are coming off a victory in a highly visible but totally unwatchable Monday night game against the Browns. As someone who thinks assessing the public's perception of a team should be a major component in setting a line for a game, I was surprised when the Ravens were made a small favorite in this week's game against the Colts.
Don't get me wrong, I think you can make a very good argument for the Ravens winning this week, but as a linesmaker you would have to know that money would come pouring in on the Colts at this price.
Years ago, I used to spend many a Sunday morning in those funky uncomfortable chairs at the the Stardust watching how they would adjust their lines. It was also a great place just to people watch. Often you would see a tourist, probably with no intention of making a bet, glance at the board, do a double take, and rush to the window to place on a wager on a game where in his mind they had obviously put the wrong number up on the board. As one ticket writer told me, " you should see the looks on these people's faces they think they are stealing." They would then rush out of the book hoping to get out of the casino before this egregious error was discovered.
One of things I learned in my years in Vegas is the real slogan of that town is that the money the tourists bring to Vegas stays in Vegas. In that regard I nominate, Ravens/ Colts as they think they are stealing game of the week. As evidence I cite Bet Jamaica's pk 15 contest where 55% haven chosen the Colts and 16% have taken the Ravens. Personally, I will be with the 16% in the contest and hopefully getting +3 with the Ravens by Sunday.
Interested in what any one else thinks about the opening line and the game itself.

[valentin22]

Reeling I totally get what you are saying...I have seen so many lines that made my head scratch only to see the side that i thought was wrong come in. Vegas does take an opinion on some games and I think they specifically adjust the line towards the opposite of what they think in order to get public money.

I say if its too good to be true than it probably is... I kind of see that tonight in the UNC - Ohio State game in college hoops. UNC at -2 will prob get most of the public money and probably has, however last time i checked the line is -1.5. Its doubtful that OSU has had more public betting than UNC thus far, so obvi vegas has taken an opinion that OSU will win this game.

However, I bet UNC tonight so that kind of makes me an idiot..LOL