NFL Underdogs: Week 11

By Brian Covert
Wed, Nov 15, 2006


Shhhh... you have to be very quiet.

After going 3-0 last week, I don’t want to wake that gambling beast (I think his name is Gamblor; sorry about the bad Simpsons reference there) who has set up shop on the other side of my cubical.

Seriously, something must have distracted him last week and allowed me to slide under the radar. How else do I win by going with Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers and going against both the Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks at home?

Worse yet, I teased the three games together, which will probably put the beast in an even more foul mood when he does wake up.

That’s why I’ve barely left my desk for the past six days. Every time he stirs, I hold my breath hoping the latest touch on my keyboard won’t be the one that finally wakes him. It’s getting so bad that all I’ve eaten is the pastrami sandwich I rationed for myself since last Monday and the moldy coffee sitting on my desk. I’m sure the fact I haven’t showered in that span isn’t helping matters either.

But don’t worry, those three-inch claws and razor-sharp teeth aren’t enough to stop me from making my picks this week. I figure the longest he’ll stay around is until the end of football season before he leaves to search out some poor college basketball prognosticator to torment.

And I can definitely wait that long. The first 10 weeks flew by and now that we’re heading into November when real men play football, I figure the time will pass twice as fast. All I ask is could someone please tell my family and friends that I probably won’t be home for Christmas.

Oakland at Kansas City – Raiders +10

How the books are favoring the Kansas City Chiefs by 10 over the Oakland Raiders I’ll never know.

Originally, I thought it may have something to do with the Kansas City weather, but early forecasts say everything should be sunny and beautiful at Arrowhead come Sunday.

Next I thought it may have something to do with Larry Johnson, but the Raiders have actually played pretty well against running teams lately, holding the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers in check in two of the last three weeks.

Finally, I thought it might have something to do with Trent Green starting for Kansas City. But sorry I’m not buying that Kansas City will be better off with a post-concussion Green in there instead of more-than-capable Damon Huard.

You have to think Green will be a little hesitant after taking that huge shot more than two months ago and Huard has been so good. Either way I don’t see them being 10 points better than the Raiders.

Tennessee at Philadelphia – Titans +13 points

I’ve been looking to take the Tennessee Titans at some point during the season.

It’s not that I’m an fan, or like southern cooking, or particularly like the Titans. I’ve just wanted to give linebacker Keith Bulluck and safety Chris Hope some due credit.

Both are animals out on the field, ranking among the top 15 in total tackles. They are big clogs in a bend-but-don’t-break defense that has helped the Titans cover five of their last seven games.

That streak includes a 14-13 loss in Indianapolis as 17-point underdogs and a 25-22 win in Washington as 12 ½-point dogs the next week.

New England at Green Bay – Packers +6 points

I think I know what it is about New England Patriots cornerback Ellis Hobbs that just grates me.

He doesn’t shut up and worse yet he does nothing to back it up. Two weeks ago against Marvin Harrison, Hobbs jawed the future Hall of Famer all night. But it was Harrison who got the better of him on the night, catching eight passes for 145 yards and two touchdowns.

This week I just hope Hobbs keeps talking as he and the Patriots go into Lambeau. If he does, I just know Brett Favre and the rest of the Green Bay Packers will light him up.

That’s what they’ve been doing recently with Favre throwing six touchdowns and only two interceptions as the Packers have gone 3-1 ATS over their last four games