NFL fact and fiction: Week 5

By David Malinsky
Tue, Oct 10, 2006


David Malinsky is a handicapper with Covers Experts.

With heartfelt tribute to the late Harry Chapin for coining one of the great album titles of all-time, we bring a new format to the table for the gridirons this fall. In this spot we will focus on what is real and what is not, and in the process find some items of pointspread significance that we can put to use in the weeks to come.

VERITIES

SAN DIEGO Offense

There is no denying that the San Diego defensive front is of Super Bowl caliber. And LaDanian Tomlinson is not only the best running back in the NFL, but arguably the best player. So it was no secret that the development of Philip Rivers and the rest of the offense would play the pivotal role if they are going to go deep into the postseason. Sunday night gave us some intriguing insight into their potential.

It was not a shock for Rivers to get intercepted on the first drive – in a showdown game against a good defense, that happens to young passers. The Chargers finished the first quarter at minus two yards of total offense, and when they touched the ball for the first time in the second stanza, they were trailing 10-0. At the time, it was the last place that Marty Schottenheimer wanted to be, but as the season unfolds, that early deficit may have been worth a fortune in terms of development.

The San Diego offense exploded for 23 points and 343 yards over the final 40 minutes of the game, including four separate scoring drives of 11 plays or more. And it is the way it happened that speaks loudly of their true potential. Tomlinson never got un-tracked, with only 36 rushing yards in 13 carries and even though he caught eight passes, they were only good for 34 yards versus a defense that keyed on him. But now a message has clearly been sent that it is no longer just a matter of keeping him in check to slow down the Charger attack.

Rivers completed 24 passes to seven different receivers. Michael Turner contributed 56 rushing yards on 11 carries, and there were many instances in the second half when he and Tomlinson lined up in the backfield together, creating a unique look for defenses to cope with – having two runners at the same time, instead of a runner and a lead blocker, is most unusual these days. In the decisive fourth quarter it was actually Turner doing most of the damage, with eight carries for 40 yards. This was a team effort.

Now as Rivers grows in confidence, they can open up even more, or as much as Schottenheimer will allow. Turner adds a particularly interesting dimension, getting an outstanding 6.8 yards per carry in piling up 277 yards already this season, while Tomlinson is at 336 at 3.8. Turner’s per-attempt average is particularly worth noting when he and Tomlinson are in the backfield at the same time, because it shows how much defenses key on the latter.

There is still a lot of development time ahead, but for the Chargers to move the ball the way they did against the Steelers, with Tomlinson largely being held in check, is a major step in the right direction. All-Pro TE Antonio Gates frames it properly –

”It’s definitely a message to the teams in this league that, ‘Hey, the San Diego Chargers can throw the ball’. Our running game is the cornerstone of this offense. But we can go out with the mindset that we are going to take what the defense is giving us. We have a ton of guys who can make plays.”

BALDERDASH

Drew Bledsoe, QB, Dallas

When the Dallas Cowboys brought Drew Bledsoe on board last year to be the veteran leader that was lacking at quarterback, many scoffed. While Bledsoe is indeed a veteran and has the strong arm to get the ball downfield to some excellent receivers, leadership has never been his forte. That showed in a most drastic way on Sunday, when his critical mistakes played a big part in that loss at Philadelphia. But while the plays in the game itself get most of the focus, it was his lack of leadership leading up to kickoff that needs to be studied.

Here was Bledsoe’s comment early in the week when asked if he was concerned about the Eagle blitzes:

"When I`ve got the weapons that I have right now, yeah, yeah, go ahead, come after me as much as you want."

This, from one of the most immobile QB’s in the league, when taking to the road to face an aggressive pass rush. And the Philadelphia defense took notice. From DT Brodrick Bunkley:

”Of course it fired us up. I won’t lie. He gave us a challenge and we took the challenge.”

From LB Jeremiah Trotter:

”I actually mentioned this (Bledsoe’s pregame comments) to the defensive backs…He’s a totally different guy when he’s getting hit. That was our main goal going into the game.”

And hit him they did. Bledsoe was sacked seven times, threw three interceptions (one of which was returned for a touchdown), and lost a fumble that led to a 12-yard Eagle touchdown drive. And instead of showing his leadership during the game, it actually got worse.

”I caught him screaming at his own linemen,” said Eagles DE Darren Howard after the game.

That is not the behavior of a real leader, but that has never really been Bledsoe’s M.O. He is a big guy with a strong arm that can tantalize a coach because of the ability to make long strikes down the field, but his mobility is a serious hindrance and he does not add those positive elements that you’d expect from a guy that has been around so long.

His passer rating of 63.6 is 27th in the league and that is particularly disturbing because sacks are not a part of that equation. Despite having a solid ground game, a quality corps of receivers, and an excellent defense, the Cowboys are just 11-9 since Bledsoe came on board last year and on Sunday, they were given a jarring reminder as to the real limitations they have at the most important position on the field.