NFL poolies cheat sheet: Week 4

By Stephen Nover
Sat, Sep 30, 2006


Stephen Nover is senior NFL analyst for Covers.com and a handicapper with Covers Experts.

Indianapolis (-9) at New York Jets

Why Colts cover: Huge talent edge. Jets aren’t physical enough or have the secondary to stop Peyton Manning. Jets lack backdoor capability to cover if Colts break out to big lead. Colts have pass rushers to take advantage of Jets’ young offensive line.

Why Jets cover: Defensive scheming with Eric Mangini, who assisted Bill Belichick when the Patriots beat the Colts seven of nine times from 2000-2005 holding Manning to 16 TD passes and 14 interceptions during that span. Colts lucky to beat Giants and out-yarded and out-clocked by Jaguars. Colts not a strong ground team anymore.

Total (46): Last six Jets games gone over.

San Diego (-2 ½) at Baltimore

Why Chargers cover: Been dominant ranking first in defense and third on offense. Have two weeks to prepare and won following bye past two seasons. Ravens offense struggling.

Why Ravens cover: Lead NFL with +10 turnover ratio. Defense playing at a high level and can handle Philip Rivers making just second road start. Early start time for cross-country flying Chargers.

Total (33 ½): Five opponents have scored a combined 27 points against Chargers and Ravens.

Minnesota at Buffalo (-1)

Why Vikings cover: Bills young and small on defense making them vulnerable to power ground attacks. Vikings 11th in run defense. Have several former standout Buffalo players, cornerback Antoine Winfield and defensive tackle Pat Williams.

Why Bills cover: Willis McGahee leading NFL in rushing. Vikings in a division sandwich off a home game against the Bears and hosting the Lions next week. Vikings 5-8 against the spread (ATS) last 13 away games.

Total (34 ½): Vikings 7-2-1 to the under last 10.

Dallas (-9 ½) at Tennessee

Why Cowboys cover: Kerry Collins six interceptions and one touchdown pass. Titans yet to intercept a pass. Bill Parcells dangerous with extra week to prepare.

Why Titans cover: Dallas distracted by Terrell Owens. Cowboys went into bye last week committing most penalties in the NFL. Dallas 3-8-1 ATS against AFC. Total (37): Titans gone over six of last seven home games.

San Francisco at Kansas City (-7)

Why 49ers cover: Chiefs averaging eight points. Scaled back offense with Damon Huard at quarterback. 49ers have fourth-ranked offense.

Why Chiefs cover: Improved defense ranks eighth. Arrowhead tough venue for second-year QB Alex Smith. 49ers allowing 4.7 yards per rush, third-worst in the NFL.

Total (40 ½): 49ers are 10-1 to the over when meeting a team that has won less than 33 percent.

New Orleans at Carolina (-7 ½)

Why Saints cover: Panthers 1-9 ATS as a favorite vs. teams better than 66 percent. Saints 4-0 ATS last four at Carolina. Saints have pass rushers to take advantage of Panthers’ reshuffled offensive line.

Why Panthers cover: Can’t think of a worse situational spot for New Orleans traveling on a short week following one of franchise’s greatest home wins. Steve Smith closer to 100 percent. Jake Delhomme beaten former team four times.

Total (42): Panthers 8-1 under at home last nine division games.

Arizona at Atlanta (-7)

Why Cardinals cover: Falcons have one less day to prepare. Kurt Warner playing for his starting QB life. Cards 6-2 ATS when getting seven or more.

Why Falcons cover: Huge motivation after Monday night embarrassment. Edgerrin James no 100-yard rushing games for Arizona. Cardinals 4-27 straight-up (SU), 9-22 ATS last 31 road games.

Total (40 ½): Arizona’s gone over 12 of past 15 away games.

Miami (-3 ½) at Houston

Why Dolphins cover: Texans allowed 400 more passing yards and 250 more rushing yards than opponents. Texans 2-18 SU last 20 and 2-9 ATS past 11 home games. Dolphins still have top-10 defense.

Why Texans cover: Dolphins shouldn’t be laying more than a field goal on the road considering how bad their offensive line and Daunte Culpepper have looked. Miami scored just four touchdowns. Dolphins have look-ahead division games on tap against Patriots and Jets.

Total (40 ½): Up from 37 ½ and climbing.

Detroit at St. Louis (-5 ½)

Why Lions cover: Rams scored only two touchdowns and are 31st in Red Zone scoring. Mike Martz knows his former team well having coached them the previous six years. Lions offense getting more in sync with new system.

Why Rams cover: Lions giving up 65 points past two games. Lions special teams worse than expected. Rams on pace to finish with 53 takeaways, which would be the most for any team in 10 years.

Total (43 ½): Rams have gone under six of their last eight.

New England at Cincinnati (-6)

Why Patriots cover: Have not been this big of an underdog since 2001 Super Bowl against Rams. Bengals offensive line banged-up. Belichick 20-12 ATS following a loss.

Why Bengals cover: Bengals off next week where Patriots have key division game against Miami. Bengals outscoring Patriots by 12 points a game. Bengals +30 in takeaways/giveaways last two years.

Total (45 ½): Last five Bengals home games have gone over.

Jacksonville (-3) at Washington

Why Jaguars cover: Redskins 0-4 SU and ATS last two years hosting AFC foes. Jaguars holding opponents to 3.2 yards per rush. Jaguars held Drew Bledsoe, Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning to a combined 54.4 passer rating picking off five passes and allowing just two touchdown throws.

Why Redskins cover: Clinton Portis makes a big difference. Jaguars on road second straight week following division showdown loss to Colts. Washington 8-4 ATS last 12 home games.

Total (34 ½): Discounting last week’s game against Houston, the Redskins are averaging 13.2 points their last four going back to last year.

Cleveland (-3) at Oakland

Why Browns cover: Raiders surrendered 15 sacks in two games. Raiders outscored, 55-6, and vying with Houston for worst team. Browns play with passion, Raiders don’t.

Why Raiders cover: Asking a bad team to lay three traveling cross-country. Andrew Walter can’t be worse than Aaron Brooks. Browns secondary has multiple injuries.

Total (33 ½): Browns 16-5-1 to the under last 22.

Seattle at Chicago (-3 ½)

Why Seahawks cover: Defending NFC champs getting more than a field goal. Matt Hasselbeck rich in receiver targets. Rex Grossman going against a good defense.

Why Bears cover: Shaun Alexander has broken foot. Seattle 5-7 ATS past 12 road games. Seahawks offensive line spotty and going against Bears defense surrendering less than eight points.

Total (34 ½): Seahawks 13-1-2 to the over last 16 on grass.

Green Bay at Philadelphia (-11)

Why Packers cover: Packers haven’t been this high of a regular-season ‘dog since 1988. Packers are fourth in passing and Philly has defensive backfield injuries. Green Bay’s covered six of last seven Monday night road games.

Why Eagles cover: Packers 31st in pass defense. Green Bay lost each of the past three years at Philadelphia. Eagles won past 12 against NFC North teams.

Total (48): Up from 45 ½.