Where the action is: Week 4 NFL line moves

[maj69er]

Where the action is: Week 4 NFL line moves

By Covers.com staff
Sat, Sep 30, 2006


Dallas at Tennessee, +7 to +9 ½

Nothing unusual in Dallas this week. Nope, nothing out of the ordinary at all.

At least that’s what bettors might think if they only looked at the line, which held steady through the entire Terrell Owens saga.

Pinnacle.com originally pegged the Cowboys as 7-point favorites last Sunday, a number that jumped to -9 ½ overnight. From then on the line held steady, even through the non-stop Owens coverage on Wednesday and afterwards.

Now that Owens has assured us that he wants to continue living, he’s doing his best to assure head coach Bill Parcells that he’s ready to play.

”If he gives me the nod that I can play, then you best believe I will be ready no matter what,” Owens told The Dallas Morning News before referring to his injured hand. “They can slap the hand, do whatever they want to the hand, I will be ready.”

Whether Owens suits up on Sunday won’t sway the line much anyways.

”It doesn’t look like he’s going to play much,” says Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club consulting service. “His shock value doesn’t affect the line and I just don’t see a lot of value in him.”



San Diego at Baltimore, +3 to +1

Baltimore is gaining respect as the week rolls on, with the spread dropping below the crucial 3-point plateau on Saturday morning to as low as a single point with Skybook.com.

”I think (the early action) was a case of everyone remembering what was freshest in their memory,” Korner says, referring to the Ravens’ inability to cover last weekend in Cleveland.

Korner noted the drop below three points and approved of further movement in Baltimore’s favor. He notes San Diego’s lightweight opposition as a big factor in his opinion.

Former Pro Bowl defenders Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed will both be game time decisions for the Ravens.



Jacksonville at Washington, +2 ½

The spread returned to its opening level on Saturday, dropping to +2 1/2 after sitting at +3 since Tuesday.

The line move comes shortly after Washington quarterback Mark Brunell told reporters that he intends to play Sunday. He suffered a nasty cut in his throwing elbow last week, but has healed nicely and was able to avoid infection.

”He looked very good today, so I think we`re all set,” head coach Joe Gibbs told reporters after Friday’s practice.

Brunell completed 24 of his 27 passes last week against Houston, leading the Redskins to a 31-15 win in which they easily covered the 3 ½-point spread.

Korner doesn’t expect the line to move any further prior to kickoff on Sunday.



New England at Cincinnati - Bengals -6 to -5 ½

Bettors have been taking the points in this matchup of AFC divisional leaders. Steady action on the Patriots has forced books to move Cincinnati off the key number (-6 equates to two field goals) by a half point.

“This is just a straight action move,” says SportsInteraction.com oddsmaker Greg Sindall. “Cincy has been doing well, but (bettors) probably though -6 was too much against New England.”

It’s hard to blame bettors for taking New England in this situation. The Pats are coming off a tough home loss to Denver from last week, and haven’t dropped back-to-back- games since Week 16 of the 2002-03 season.

“People are getting the idea that Tom Brady is upset at the loss to Denver. The Pats aren’t the same team they used to be, but they still have that image,” says Sindall. “They’re still favored to win that division.”

Indianapolis at New York Jets – Jets +9 to +8

There doesn’t appear to be any real strategic advantage for the Jets in this matchup that would entice New York money. However, bettors appear to be ignoring the Xs and Os and are simply making what they see as a value play.

“People are just looking at it as a 9-point home dog in a conference game,” says Sindall.

Along with the home dog value, the Jets have also been underrated this year. They were getting point in straight-up wins over Tennessee and Buffalo. Both those victories came on the road.

“Nine points is just a lot to give this team at home,” says Sindall.


Seattle at Chicago, +1 to –3 ½

Seattle started out as a 1-point favorite with Pinnacle.com’s tentative opening line and was quickly established as a 1-point dog by the time Sunday evening was done.

Shaun Alexander’s foot injury led to Chicago being bumped up to a 3 ½-point fave from Wednesday onwards.

Maurice Morris will start at tailback for the Seahawks, who are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS this year.

[maj69er]

A few other moves. Oakland(yes thats right OAKLAND :shock: ) has been pounded and most lines are -1 to browns in not pk.