NFL game day buzz: Week 4 betting notes

By Andrew Folkes
Sat, Sep 30, 2006


Jets cover, under co-dependant?

Laveranues Coles isn’t exactly running a touting service, but he’s pretty much said that anyone backing his Jets at +9 against Indianapolis this week may as well parlay it with the under.

After all, if New York is going to give the Colts and their high-octane offense a run for their money, the contest has to be a low-scoring affair. Sunday’s total is set at 46 ½.

“You`re not going to beat them at their game,” Coles told reporters for Newsday.com. “We can`t make it our offense compared to theirs because our numbers are nowhere near the numbers that they have. The pressure is on our defense.”

Despite Coles’ pessimism, the Jets have managed to cash in on the strength of their offense. Their victories as underdogs against Tennessee and Buffalo both jumped the total and all three of their games have gone over.

But a Colts payday isn’t necessarily predicated on an over result either. Indy’s ATS victories against the Giants and Jaguars both produced unders and the Colts managed just 26 and 21 points respectively in those games.

Jets coach Eric Mangini also has a proven knack for slowing Indy’s attack. He served as New England’s secondary coach during the Patriots’ six-game winning streak against the Colts between 2001-2005, and held them to an average of 18 points in those tilts.

His preferred tactic was to have the cornerbacks jam Indy’s receivers at the line of scrimmage to disrupt their routes and give the pass rush more time to pressure Peyton Manning. However, Mangini suggests he may utilize a different strategy in this matchup.

"It`s important to have something different," he said. "Because if (Manning) sees it, and knows it, he`ll beat it."

Bills scoring the green despite red zone woes

Buffalo defensive tackle Larry Tripplett made a fairly obvious statement to the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle this week.

"When you`re in the red zone, that`s when the game is won or lost a lot of times," he said.

It’s true that what a team does inside the 20 goes a long way in getting it to the ticket window. However, the Bills have managed to cover in two of their first three contests despite struggling in the red zone on both sides of the ball.

After three weeks of competition, Buffalo’s red zone offense ranks No. 25 in the NFL while its defense sits at No. 30. It makes you wonder how the Bills have managed to keep their backers in the black, and a closer look at the box scores suggests luck has been a factor.

The Bills scored a defensive touchdown in their ATS victory over New England. Linebacker Takeo Spikes blindsided Tom Brady deep in Patriots territory on the first play of that contest, which led to London Fletcher’s six-yard touchdown off the fumble recovery. The Bills also got nine points off of field goals when they beat Miami 16-6 at +6 ½ in Week 2.

As for the defense, it’s clearly benefited from the fact that New England’s and Miami’s offenses rank 18th and 28th in the league respectively.

History suggests that Buffalo’s cash flow will dry up if the offense can’t make good on its deep penetrations. The Bills ranked 30th in red zone offense the last season and finished with a 7-9 mark against the spread. The defense is also coming off a game where it allowed the Jets three red zone majors.

"You`ve got to find a way to score," coach Dick Jauron said. "We have to find a way to score touchdowns down there to win consistently, and we`ll just continue to work on it."

Patriots secondary doesn’t measure up to Cincy’s air attack

The New England Patriots are at a sizable disadvantage as they head into Cincinnati as 5 ½-point underdogs for Sunday’s game against the Bengals.

Cincy wideouts Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh both measure in at 6-foot-1 while position mate Chris Henry stands at 6-4. Charged with covering those receivers are cornerbacks Asante Samuel (5-foot-10) and Ellis Hobbs( 5-9) as well as safety Eugene Wilson (5-10), who usually covers the slot against three-receiver sets.

How do these defenders overcome the height differential? For the answer, coach Bill Belichick draws a basketball analogy.

“You get a guy like Charles Barkley that led the league in rebounding - you don`t have to be 7-foot-2,” he told the Boston Globe. “It`s not always about the tallest guy, but it`s timing and your effort to elevate and get to the highest point.”

Timing and effort haven’t done much for those defenders so far, as they’re getting scorched for over 227 passing yards per game.

Injuries also threaten to take the spring out of the secondary ‘s step. Hobbs is listed as questionable with a wrist injury while Wilson is also questionable with a strained hamstring.

Sappy in St. Louis: Martz returns to face Rams

Detroit bettors might need a lot more than the 5 ½ points they’re getting for Sunday’s game in St. Louis if offensive coordinator Mike Martz can’t get his act together.

Martz, who spent 12 of the last 14 seasons working for the Rams franchise, faces his former team for the first time since he was fired as head coach last year. Just thinking about the game gets him all chocked up.

"It`s going to be emotional, you know, walking into the (Edward Jones Dome)," he told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "Just the smell it has. There`s just a kind of ambience to that whole thing... You see the helmets, and, you know ..."

Those were the only comments Martz could muster before becoming visibly emotional and having to excuse himself. He even cancelled his weekly address to the media because he couldn’t stand to rehash his days as the St. Louis skipper.

Lions backers had better hope that doesn’t affect his play calling because the team has only scored 37 points this season as it is. And 24 of those came during last week’s loss to Green Bay.

But although Martz has fond memories of team, the end was a bitter one. The front office told him not to contact the interim coaching staff while he was recovering from a heart aliment last season. Marc Bulger, who Martz transformed into a Pro Bowl quarterback, also made nasty comments about his former coach in the wake of the firing.

This is Martz’s opportunity to earn a little payback, and the Lions think he’ll make the best of it.

“Oh, yeah,” wide receiver Roy Williams told the Detroit Free Press. “I mean, if I get traded and I come back here to Detroit, I want to put on a good show. That`s just the nature of this game. You especially want to beat your old team."