Total dropping in Irish-Purdue matchup

By Julian Dickinson
Thu, Sep 28, 2006


Here’s the question.

There are two trains traveling at 100 mph, both headed towards South Bend, Indiana.

In one train, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are steaming along on the strength of their offense, driven by Brady Quinn and his 1,000-plus passing yards and 11 touchdowns.

On the other one, the aptly named Purdue Boilermakers are stoking the engines. Their offense (which hasn’t gotten nearly as much attention as the Irish) is pulling the bulk of the weight, racking up yards and points at an even greater rate than the Notre Dame offensive machine.

So what happens when the two trains meet?

Think about it for a second. It could be a trick question.

First instinct makes you think this one’s going to fly over the total before the seats at Notre Dame Stadium get warm, even though oddsmakers opened the total at a skyscraping 64 points. But some bettors aren’t convinced.

Sure, Notre Dame averages around 30 points a game and its defense looks like it couldn’t stop a kindergarten class at a crosswalk. And people may or may not know that under the guidance of quarterback Curtis Painter, Purdue has the No. 5 offense in the nation.

But for some reason, the total in this game has been bet down as low as 61 points at some sportsbooks.

Does this make any sense at all?

“The total has been bet down, but not with my money,” says Covers Expert Ted Sevransky. “The only things that could keep this game under the total, in my opinion, are bad weather, bad field position and/or turnovers.”

He might have a point. The Irish defense has allowed almost as many points as their offense produced this year and they looked bad two weeks in a row. Michigan hung 47 points on Notre Dame two weeks ago and Michigan State piled up 37 points last week, 31 of which came in the first half alone.

When Painter and the Boilermakers come to town, it’s hard to imagine anything short of divine intervention will keep them out of the end zone. They have one of the most balanced offenses in the country, with an average of 297 passing yards per game and 164 rushing.

That could be a problem for Notre Dame’s defense, which has looked decidedly incompetent all season.

But Purdue’s defense should be put under the microscope as well. The knock against the Boilermakers is that they’ve yet to face a top-notch team and even against mostly second-rate competition, they’ve given up enough points to rank them worst among Big Ten teams and better than only 19 other teams in the country.

This week, Notre Dame focused its attention on converting first downs and playing consistently for four quarters. If the Irish can do that, oddsmakers probably can’t set a number high enough to keep this game from playing over.

Sevransky thinks they might be ready to peak.

“Brady Quinn threw five touchdown passes in three quarters against a much better defense (Michigan State) than this one last week, after that dismal first quarter.”

But as Sevransky warned, there might be more to think about in this game than just stats and matchups. Even if the defenses can’t stop the scoring, Mother Nature might make a stand. Forecasts call for a 50 percent chance of rain in South Bend on Saturday.

“(The line move has) been all because of money on the under,” said BetCRIS.com oddsmaker Shane Catford. “One of our guys also told us that the weather may not be very good there over the weekend, so I would say that’s why the money is coming in for the under.”

Books have the Irish listed as 14-point favorites.