College Four-play: Week 5 predictions

By Jon Campbell
Thu, Sep 28, 2006


If last Saturday’s sports television performance had a rating tag attached to it like the movies, it would have to be either restricted or NC-17. It was so gruesome, it wasn’t suitable for anything other than mature audiences.

I watched anyway.

And I have to tell you, like watching The Texas Chainsaw Massacre or The Exorcist for the first time, the memories still haunt me.

Every time I flipped to CBS, I witnessed another short field-goal attempt get blown wide by either an Alabama or Arkansas kicker. And every time I flipped to NBC I watched the Americans yip a short putt on their way to another European onslaught at the Ryder Cup.

With every blown opportunity the terror got worse.

My knees were curled into my chest. My knuckles were planted firmly between my teeth. My thumb quivered as I fearfully pointed the remote toward the screen and pressed the ‘go back’ button with trembling hands.

Why, I asked myself, do I want to go back?

“I don’t know what to say,” said a wide-eyed, tussle-haired Phil Mickleson in the post-Ryder Cup press conference when a reporter asked him why he failed to produce even a half-point. “I just don’t know how to answer that.”

Bama coach Mike Shula didn’t need to tell us he didn’t have an adequate explanation for his freshman kicker`s performance. Leigh Tiffin went 1-for-4 on makeable field goals and failed to make an extra point in double overtime that would have sent the game to triple OT. Shula’s jaw dropped so far on the sidelines it had grass stains.

Later in the evening, just when I thought I was safe from the monstrosities that occurred that afternoon, the second half began in the Notre Dame-Michigan State game. I watched Spartans QB Drew Stanton stumble, bumble, and intercept away a 17-point halftime lead and hand the Irish a 40-37 victory.

It was even a dark and stormy night in East Lansing.

Fortunately, I took the Irish at -2 ½ earlier in the week, which meant I would have to undergo one less traumatizing experience that weekend: opening my inbox.

That win pulled my Four-play record to 3-1 for the week, meaning I wouldn’t have to endure the profanity laced responses I received the week before when I went a ghastly 0-4.

I’m now 8-8 on the season with my picks as we head into Week 5 and begin the long and winding journey of conference play for many teams.

So far there are some intriguing storylines developing. We have an astonishing 19 undefeated teams straight up. We have 15 more undefeated against the spread. The Miami Hurricanes have a losing record through two games. Plays per game are way down. And two replay officials have been suspended for screwing up easy calls after the C-USA official who did the Houston-Oklahoma State game erred last week.

I can’t quite piece together what it all means yet, so let’s get on with this week’s plays.

Alabama vs. Florida (-13 ½, O/U 38 ½)

If I hadn’t watched Alabama play last weekend, I’d tell you to take the Gators as a gift from the oddsmakers and run like you just stole change from your mother’s purse.

As it turns out, I did see the Tide and I happen to think they’re pretty decent.

John Parker Wilson’s 913 passing yards and seven touchdowns to just one interception are no fluke for a first-year starter. He looked unflappable in several key situations last week against Arkansas – on the road mind you – even though Bama ended up losing the game. Wilson has other key weapons to work with like receivers Keith Brown and D.J. Hall, and running back Kenneth Darby has to bust out for a big game soon.

The Tide’s defense has been solid too with just 13.7 points and 233.3 yards against per game.

But yeah, this is Florida you’re saying. The Gators man. I know. Florida’s got a great team, despite the fact quarterback Chris Leak has played a little – how can I put this nicely? – girly at times. Tough defense. Great special teams. Offense that can score.

But there are a couple of other key intangibles that go into this game. After Bama, Florida is staring down what I feel is the toughest three-game stretch in college football this season. Louisiana State awaits next week, followed by a trip to Auburn, followed by a home game against Georgia. That’s what I call nasty.

Even though Florida has revenge on the brain after getting spanked by the Tide last year, how can you not take a peek ahead? The Gators have a habit of not taking Alabama seriously enough because the Tide have been underdogged in the last seven meetings and they’re 5-1-1 in that stretch.

And about those kicking issues. Florida has yet to boot a field goal this year; Alabama should get its regular kicker back this week, Jamie “Money” Christensen.

My Pick: Alabama +13 ½

Tennessee vs. Memphis (+13, O/U 44 ½)

Memphis offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner and head coach Tommy West were talking last week about their upcoming game against the Vols.

Fichtner: Tough game comin’ up Coach. Probably toughest one of the season.

West: Yep.

Fichtner: So, what’s the game plan? Keep it simple? Try to limit mistakes and give our boys a shot?

West: Naw. I was thinking more like firing the defensive coordinator, implementing a completely new system, and trying to teach it to them in four days before the game arrives.

Fichtner: Oh. I see. What are we, 13-point underdogs? I’ll be right back Coach, I have to make a phone call.

My Pick: Tennessee -13

Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech (-9, 37 ½)

This line opened at -11 and quickly dropped to -9. The only thing that surprises me is that it didn’t drop more.

The way Georgia Tech’s defense is playing right now, I’m not sure it’s a good idea to make the Jackets a 9-point dog against anybody, let alone an inexperienced QB like Sean Glennon who has yet to play an opponent that’s any tougher than cardboard.

While it’s true Virginia Tech has yet again one of the toughest defenses in the nation, don’t be fooled by Reggie Ball’s numbers. Georgia Tech’s QB may look like he’s producing the same as always with a disappointing 51.1 completion percentage, but he’s making better decisions this year and looks like a smarter quarterback.

If the Yellow Jackets don’t win this one, they should at least be able to keep it within nine points. And if you don’t like the spread, nobody can call you a fool for taking the under. These teams are allowing just 17.6 points per game combined.

My Pick: Georgia Tech +9

Michigan vs. Minnesota (+9 1/2, O/U 51)

There are all sorts of silly little novelty items that teams play for in certain rivalry games like the Megaphone (MSU-Notre Dame), the Golden Egg (Mississippi-Mississippi State), Keg of Nails (Cincinnati-Louisville), and my personal favorite, the Peace Pipe (Bowling Green-Toledo).

A lot of times they don`t mean a whole lot and teams even forget about them. But not the Little Brown Jug. Michigan coach Lloyd Carr loves that jug and he isn`t happy that Minnesota took it away last year.

Every year he tells his team the story of the little Brown Jug and how it was a tradition started by Michigan coach Fielding Yost back around the turn of the century. Depending on which version you believe, Minnesota stole Michigan`s water jug, painted it brown and when Yost asked for it back Minnesota coach L.J. Cooke responded,"We have your little brown jug; if you want it, you`ll have to win it back."

And so the Wolverines did. And they will again on Saturday.

Why? There are a lot of reasons, but here`s the main one: Minnesota needs to run the ball to win; Michigan is allowing 18.5 yards rushing this year.

My Pick: Michigan -9 1/2

Jon Campbell is the senior editor for Covers.com and he watches and wagers on enough college football to make any degenerate proud. You can reach him at jon@covers.com