Where the action is: Week 5 NCAA line moves

By Covers.com staff
Sat, Sep 30, 2006


Toledo at Pittsburgh: -11 ½ to -16 ½ (line history)

Some books opened this game as low as -11 ½, but the line was quickly bet up to -14 by Sunday night. Another big move came on Thursday when the Panthers jumped from -14 to -16. The line has moved up another half point since then.

“We opened this game with Pitt -13 (-105),” says Simon Noble of Pinnaclesports.com. “There was a lot of both sharp and public action on Pitt on Thursday, which drove the line up to where it currently stands at Pitt -16 ½ (-110). If this trend continues, it wouldn’t be shocking to see it hit -17 by kickoff.”

New Mexico at Air Force: -10 ½ to -13 ½ (line history)

This line opened with the Falcons as 10 ½-point favorites, but a big move came the following day. Sharp action pushed Air Force up 1 ½ points to a 12-point favorite on Monday and the action since than has continued to favor the Falcons with Air Force now as high as a 14-point favorite at some books.

“Air Force opened as a -10 1/2 (-105) favorite on Sunday,” says Noble. “After receiving two-way action at the start of the week, some sharper money came in on the favorite moving the line to Air Force -13 ½ (-111). So far we`ve seen twice as many bets place on Air Force than New Mexico.”

Akron at Kent State: +4 to +2 (line history)

Not a huge line move, but worth noting because most books allowed to the to go right through the key field-goal number which provides a middling opportunity. Kent State opened as a 4-point road underdog, and the line has been all over the place since then. It’s been bet down to as low as pick’em at some books before moving back up in favor or Akron. The consensus now has Arkon as either a 2 or 2 ½-point road favorite.

“This game has moved one point after opening at Akron -3 1/2 to now standing at Akron -2.5,” says Noble. “While there’s been two-way action on the game, the larger public bets have been on Kent while the larger sharps are on Akron. Right now the dogs have received twice as many bets as favorites, but that could change if the line remains at -2 ½ if sharps decide to re-buy before hitting the -3.”

Northwestern at Penn State: -14 ½ to -20 (line history)

The Nittany Lions opened as 14 ½-point favorites at Pinnacle on Sunday and quickly climbed to the key number of -17 by Sunday night. The line has continued to rise steadily since then.

“Penn State opened as a 14 ½-point favorite, but has steamed up to -20 (-104),” says Noble. “Pinnacle saw a lot of early money on Penn State and most of the sharper money is also on the Nittany Lions at home.”

Miami-Ohio at Cincinnati: - 8 to -11 (line history)

The line stayed fairly steady over the first four days of betting, with the Bearcats listed between 8 and 9-point favorites at most books. The big move came on Thursday when Cincinnati jumped two full points to move to an 11-point favorite, where the number remains.

“Cincinnati has received three times as many bets as Miami, which has helped pushed the line up three points from Cincy -8 to –11,” says Noble. “There was balanced action to start, but a lot of heavy sharp action came in yesterday on the Bearcats which drove the line up.”

Eastern Michigan at UL-Lafayette: - 3 ½ to -8 (line history)

The big jump in this line came on Monday, when the line vaulted all the way from -4 ½ to -7. It’s since moved another point on most books, making UL-Lafayette an 8-point favorite.

“Pinnacle saw early two-way action, but some larger public volume came in as the week went on which slowly pushed the line upwards,” says Noble.

Stanford at UCLA: -21 ½ to -23 ½ (line history)

This line opened with the Bruins as 21 ½-point favorites as was quickly bet up to 23 ½ by Monday. It’s remained steady at 23 ½ for most of the week.

“We had a couple of sharp guys some in early on UCLA,” says Shane Catford of BetCRIS.com. “It seems like it’s the side to be on in this game.”

Nevada at UNLV: +7 to +3 (line history)

This line has moved all over the place. BetCRIS.com opened with the Wolf Pack as a 3-point road favorite, was bet all the way up to +7, and then all the way back down to +3.

“To be honest, I think (the line move) was some sharps trying to set us up,” says Catford, referring to the tactic of sharp bettors playing small, early limit bets to move the line to a number they want, then pounding the line the other way with max bets later in the week.