NFL total bias: Week 3 over/under plays

By Ryan Stetson
Tue, Sep 19, 2006


Tony Kornheiser, I got your back.

You see, America doesn’t want anybody talking about spreads and totals – it`s almost as bad as bringing up Weapons of Mass Destruction at a Republican rally.

To the NFL, an institution that’s more U.S.A. than the stars and stripes themselves, pointspreads and totals may as well be UFOs and Sasquatch sightings. And for the most part, ESPN programming flirts with betting numbers like 14-year-old coeds at a sock hop.

Then you’ve got guys like Kornheiser.

He put a funeral hush over the ESPN booth during the first half of the Steelers-Jags Monday Nighter when he quipped “this looks like a game you’d play the under.”

You’re darn right, Tony. Especially if you got it at 37 ½.

Of course, Mike Tirico and Joe Theismann handled it like a dinner table faux pas with the in-laws – shhhh, nobody said anything. Sweep it under the mat and move on.

But at this point, everybody’s thinking it. I mean there’s nothing but double donuts on the scoreboard with halftime just around the corner. At least take the opportunity to connect with your audience. Somebody has to step up and spit it out.

And say what you will about Kornheiser in the booth, but he’s in a tough spot. He’s got the deadpan Tirico to his left and the annoyance of Theismann to his right. Somehow, Kornheiser’s supposed to be funny without offending anyone in the booth or on the other side of the boob tube?

Not exactly an enviable situation.

That’s why he’s still coming across tentative instead of his usual snarky, sarcastic self. You know he’s got ESPN breathing down the back of his neck to walk the fine line between engaging and enraging, while everybody`s just waiting to jump all over him like a bad Dennis Miller reference.

That’s why I’ll go to bat for Tony. He keeps talking totals and he’s all right with me.

Which brings me to what I’m up to with this weekly piece – I’ll take a look at the numbers early in the week and let you know what totals I’m playing.

But you should know going in that I’d take a Wes Welker shoulder shot over a Hail Mary any day and an under before and over in a heartbeat. That’s my disclaimer. Take it for what you will.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville – under 44 ½

I wanted this under at the open when it was around 47 before Monday night’s game, but of course I ended up forgetting all about it and the sharps had bumped it down by the time I got back to it.

I’ll still take it at this number, though I’m a bit concerned about Indy’s defense against Jacksonville’s wideouts after they did a number on Pittsburgh’s secondary. There’s no Troy Polamalu among Indy’s DBs.

Can’t see it being anything close to a shootout though, Peyton be damned.

St. Louis at Arizona – over 44 ½

I know it reeks of a square play, but I thought this number would come out about a field goal higher.

Plus, neither one of these teams can stop the run, so Warner and Bulger should get some support from their backs to set up the air attack. One of these teams should come close to cracking 30 and if either club gets up a couple of majors it’s going to be bombs away.

Falcons at New Orleans – under 42

In case you didn’t notice, the Falcons defense just beat the sense out of Carolina and Tampa Bay, allowing nine points over eight quarters. Now they get Drew "Check Down" Brees and his five-yard outs to Reggie Bush.

With two run-heavy teams rumbling on, the clock’s going to run all night and I really can’t see this one turning into an air show.