TomahawkChop NCAA Football (Sept)

[TomahawkCHOP]

I know these games fall on the 31st, but its close enough to Sept :D

8/31

4* South Carolina -6 WINNER!

South Carolina went 5-1 in their last 6 games with the one loss being Clemson & 4-1-1 ATS. On the road last year against conference opponents they were 3-1 ATS.

Miss St on the other hand, went 1-5 in their last 6 & 1-4-1 ATS. In 4 out of their 5 home games, they lost by an avg margin of 18. The largest margin of defeat being againt LSU by 30 & the smallest margin of defeat being against Houston by 12.

It usually takes two years for a quarterback to fully grasp Steve Spurrier's complex system. Nearly every great quarterback Spurrier had at Florida redshirted thier first year. Blake Mitchell should be much improved and more comfortable in Spurriers offense.

USC recieves a big addition in Cory Boyd. He sat out last year, due to suspension. He should take some pressure off Sidney Rice (70 receptions for 1,143 yards and 13 TD in 2005) who will probably see a lot of double teams.

Syvelle Newton is another person making his debut for USC after missing the last 5 games of 2005 with a torn Achilles tendon.

Mississippi State's front seven on defense could cause a lot of problems for USCs inexperienced line. I see Mitchell reverting to two and three step drops and quick slants his WRs and TEs if he gets in trouble. Spurrier will look to get his playmakers out in open space by calling alot of screens, draws, and dump passes, where they can take advantage of Miss. St. weak secondary and make plays.

Miss. St. doesnt have much on offense to contend with USC. If USC can jump out to a quick lead and dictate the tempo of the game, Miss St. may have a hard time catching up. They may be forced to air it out, and if they do, this will play right into the hands of USC defense. Miss. St has Connor who is thier top WR, but USC Bennett is possibly the SEC's best cover man. If Bennett can win that battle, this may force Miss. St to be one-dimensional.

Spurrier is still under the microscope. He still has to prove to fans and everybody watching that he has turned that program around. Being a Nole fan, one thing i can tell you is that Spurrier likes to jump on you right from the get go. He's relentless and very rarley calls off the dogs.

With all the negative USC comments Corso made, i bet the Gamecocks come out with an even bigger chip on their shoulder.

The Gamecocks own a perfect 12-0 record when opening the season on a day other than Saturday, outscoring their opponents by a 270-27 margin in those contests.

4*Iowa St -8.5LOSER!

The last time ISU faced a respectable MAC defense, it shredded it on the ground. That was in 2004 when they rushed for 295 yards on 59 carries against Miami University in t Independence Bowl.

ISU has a big experienced offensivel line. Toledo uses the 3-4 defense. They return 2 of their 3 down linemen, but lost both starting ILB's. They will definetley feel the loss of Anthony Jordan who was the defensive do-it-all for toledo the past two seasons with 100+ tackles each year. ISU should be able to exploit the thin light defense of Toledo and get some second level blocking done on the LB's.

ISU was very weak in pass protection last year. They gave up way to many sacks. Toledo will blitz alot to get to Meyer. ISU should be prepared for this though. I think he will make Toledo pay.

ISU will use the 6 WR set tonight. Thats way too many Big 12 receivers out in routes for Toledo to cover. Toledo will probably double ISU WR Blythe, but there are too many other options for Meyer. It only takes one blow assignment for a double team to be ineffective. This should draw alot of attention away from the other WRs. I think Meyer will do the right thing and find the open man.

3*Ball St -4.5WINNER!

2* Kent St +15 LOSER!

[TomahawkCHOP]

2-2 on the night

Iowa St...give me a fucken break. With all those staters you returned and that big offensive line, you cant stop a MAC school. Pittaful! The one game i pick, has to be the weirdest one out of them all, goes into 3 OT.

fuken shoot me

[TomahawkCHOP]

1* Fresno St -13 LOSER!

[TomahawkCHOP]

0-1, just a small play for some action...no biggie. Sat will be a big day!!

2-3 YTD

[TomahawkCHOP]

4* Houston -14 LOSER!
3* Indiana -7 WINNER!
3* Pittsburgh -3.5 WINNER!
3* Souther Cal -8 WINNER!
2* UF -20 (bough half) WINNER!
2* Auburn -14 WINNER!
1* SMU +26 LOSER!

I really like Clemson. Im going to wait and see what the line does. I go to FAU...they are pretty bad lol.

[TomahawkCHOP]

3* Michigan/Vanderbilt 010 1Q PUSH!

[maj69er]

BOL today......

[MidMo]

GL today!

[TomahawkCHOP]

Thanks guys.

I KNEW i should of took Clemson. FAU just flat out sucks. Oh well.

[TomahawkCHOP]

5-2 on the day & 7-5-1 YTD.

Lost on Hou & SMU.

How the hell do you give up 27 points in ONE quarter to a team like Rice? LOL, what a joke. They should have easily covered.

SMU on the other hand couldnt even score a damn TD, pretty sad. Small play, so it didnt hurt that bad

Overall, i had BIG day like i said i would :D

[TomahawkCHOP]

Just a very small personal play for today

3 team parlay

Ole Miss -3
Baylor +7
Kentucky +22.5

[Micelli]

GoodLuck!

[TomahawkCHOP]

Thanks.

FSU HUGE tomorrow. Pick my brain if you like.

[Micelli]

already jumped on it yesterday!! +3.5 -107

[TomahawkCHOP]

The team that has run for more yards in this series has won 16 of the last 19.

I threw some down on the ML +150. Going to wait and see if it goes up any.

I will have a HUGE write up on this game sometime later tonight. Look for it!

[TomahawkCHOP]

2* Ole Miss -3 PUSH!

[TomahawkCHOP]

4* FSU ML +150 WINNER!

This game is going to come down to who can dominate in the trenches. Last year when these two teams met, Miami had a senior laden offensive line and a healthy back in Tyrone Moss. FSU on the other hand, had an offensive line that was already banged up going into the game. They lost Matt Meinrod in the preseason to a knee injury. Other than starting center David Castillo, rest of the line was inexperienced and young. On top of all that, they had to learn a whole new offense. FSU brought in offensive line coach Mark McHale. He brought with him the zone blocking scheme, the same offensive scheme that the Denver Broncos use. Somehow, the Seminoles managed to run for more yards than the Miami Hurricanes.

This year, other then Corey Niblock, who is coming off of a knee surgery, the starters and key backups on the offensive line are not only healthy, but have been for most of the off-season. This has allowed the offensive line to develop a lot of chemistry and focus on fundamentals and technique. FSU was criticized last year for its horrible running game. They ranked dead last in the ACC in rushing offense. Bobby Bowden and the offensive coaches have promised to make the running game a major part of the offense. They drove home the point in spring and preseason. Lorenzo Booker & Antone Smith had atleast one run each of 20+ yards in 4 of the 5 held practices.

Running the football is important in any football game, but it’s even more important when it comes to Florida State-Miami. The team that controls the line of scrimmage and gets the better of the ground game takes home the victory. In fact, the team that has run for more yards in this series has won 16 of the last 19.

Miami has a young offensive line and an unproven RB. They are going up against a good FSU defensive line whose strength is at DT. If they’re going to exploit this defensive line, its on the ends, but I feel the speed of FSU’s LB’s will keep them in check.

Last year, Drew Weatherford came into the game having not played a single game. He was basically given the duty of “don’t lose the game for us.” He wasn’t allowed to check off at the line/audible into something else. Miami kept their safeties up close, because they knew we weren’t going to take risk throwing it down field.

This year however, Drew Weatherford has control of this offense and much more mature. He goes through all his progression (something Rix failed to do) and knows how to read defenses very good.

Although there’s the uncertainty of the Miami offense, there’s also the uncertainty of the FSU offense. This isn’t the same team Miami saw last year. Their small/young corners are going to be matched up with Chris Davis, Greg Carr, and Decody Fagg

Weatherford broke the ACC record for most passing yards in a single season, set by Philip Rivers.

Lorenzo Booker & Antone Smith provide a nice 1-2 punch at RB.

Chris Davis has serious speed. He has Peter Warrick like moves. Last year he was more of an underneath guy, catching a lot of short passes, getting majority of his yards after the catch. He has turned it around this year. He’s developed into more of a complete receiver. He has improved a lot on the deep route. Him & Weatherford have developed some good chemistry together and he seems to be Weatherboards favorite target.

Greg Carr, who is 6’6, had 618 yards & 9 TD’s last year. He didn’t even start either. He will cause a lot of problems for Miami’s young corners.

6’3 Decody Fagg is the slot receiver. He has very good hands and like Carr, due to his height, should cause some problems for Miami’s corners.

Throw into the mix two highly recruited TE’s in Caz Piurowski (6’7 234) and Brandon Warren (5* recruit), this FSU offense will too much for Miami. Their safeties wont be able to cheat and crowd the box like last year. They will have to respect the pass.

If you’re an outsider looking in, you think, “They lost 5 starts on defense, their defense is going to be hurting.” If you honestly think that, your in for a rude awakening. Replacing AJ Nicholson at the SLB will be Lawrence Timmons. He’s rated the #1 OLB by ESPN’s Mel Kiper. The funny thing is, he hasn’t even started a game yet. That just shows you how serious this kid is. One thing I can tell you is, he’s a BEAST. I’m not just saying that because im a Nole fan. He made his presence known on special teams last year. Whenever he came in, he blocked a kick, forced a fumble, or got an interception. This summer, he’s been doing the same. In one practice, he lined up in a 3-point stance and took on a Tackle and FB and still got the sack. Then later on he forced a fumble and got an interception. Many think he’s the best LB since Derrick Brooks. He was used as a gunner last year on special teams. He’s pretty fast. Expect to see a lot of blitzing by this man. He will also be responsible (sometimes) for covering Miami’s TE.

FSU has to replace DT Brodrick Bunkley. Those are pretty big shoes to fill, but the way FSU puts out DT, they shouldn’t experience much of a dropoff. Stepping into the spotlight will be Andre Fluellen. He played a lot last year along side Bunkley. He’s been dominating the offensive linemen in spring & summer drills. When FSU defensive tackle coach, Odell Haggins, was asked what makes him better than all the other DT’s that have came through FSU, Allen said he’s really fast and explosive off the line. A lot of the FSU offensive linemen agreed. Once he gets that first move on you, its really hard to recover.

Paul Griffin will be the other DT lined up next to Fluellen. These two make up the strength of this defensive line. He’s a juco transfer, so he has some experience. The guy is a MONSTER. During summer drills he was always in the backfield, disrupting plays. I feel bad for anyone who gets tackled by him. He benches 500 lbs lol. Im really excited to see him play. I don’t think for four quarters, the Miami offensive line is going to be able to stop these two. They are just too dominating.

Replacing Ernie Sims at the WLB will be Geno Hayes (rated #1 LB in FL couple years back), Derek Nicholson (brother of AJ), or Jae Thaxton. All are very fast & athletic. You will see all 3 of them on the field, depending on what formation they are in.

No one can replace DE, Kamerion Wimbley. This is where FSU hurts the most on defense. Starting DE, Alex Boston, who started last year will probably miss the game. He’s listed as doubtful. He’s recovering from a minor knee injury, but is still suffering from an ankle sprain. Stepping in will be DE, DJ Norris. He’s nothing special. He’s good against the run, but he doesn’t possess the speed Boston did. Backing him up will be RS freshman Everette Brown. He showed a lot of promise in spring & summer practice. He had 5 sacks in (no contact) scrimmage. He excels against the pass, so look to see a combination of the two on defense…Norris in on running down & Everette in on passing downs.

With the weakness of the defensive line being at DE and strength being at LB, FSU will use the 3-4 at times, giving Miami different defensive looks. Last year, Wright couldn’t seem to figure it out. This is a huge edge for FSU.

FSU CB Tony Carter, who was a parade all American in high school, is a solid corner. He has quick closing speed and good coverage skills. He plays like a CB, but hits like a LB. He made a game saving TD in the open field last year when he laid out Sinorice Moss in the open field. On the other side is J.R. Bryant. He’s been good, but not great like many expected when he signed with FSU. I remember seeing him get beat a good amount of times last year. Hopefully he has improved.

At safety we got Anthony Houllis & Roger Williams. Houllis isn’t a Sean Taylor. He’s a sound defender. In fact, you will probably see more of Myrone Rolle, the nations #1 recruit last year. He has been everything FSU has hoped for and more. Rolle is a very smart player. That’s what separates him apart from a lot of the other safties we’ve had. He’s a student of the game and spends a lot of time breaking down film and studying the playbook.

[Micelli]

One of the better write-ups i've read. Thanks for sharin!
Now Let's cash this one!!!!!!!!

[takdapoints]

write up TomChop...... i agree this is a nice place for FSU.... Im on it with you.... keep up the good work!


Lets help each other, I know some of these guys personall and trust and DISCIPLINE are two HUGE factors.... and with this group we are on to something special....... Lets go tfz1.com .... tell a friend..... i believe a philosopher named Snoop Dog once said, " It aint no fun if the homies cant have none!"......


$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ :D :D

[TomahawkCHOP]

Thanks micelli & takdapoints. I forgot to mention that FSU has had a top 3 recruiting class the past 2 years :D I live about 45 mins from the stadium and its already raining here. Heres the forcast for the day

"Labor Day: Occasional rain and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 87. East wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Tonight: Occasional showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 75. South wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%."