The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?

[Dirty]

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.
The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on Pollster.com - 2008 Election Polls, Trends, Charts and Analysis.
On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama's strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points -- 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama's final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two -- Rasmussen and Pew -- were spot on.
Here is the list --
1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
6T. ARG (10/25-27)*
8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)
8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
13. FOX (11/1-2)
14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
18. Marist College (11/3)
19. CBS (10/31-11/2)
20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
23. Newsweek (10/22-23)


Posted by Richard Dunham at November 5, 2008 03:32 PM




Texas on the Potomac: The List: Which presidential polls were most accurate?

[pvcpipe]

Doesn't surprise me that Newsweek was dead last. It does surprise me that Reuters and Gallup were so far down.