Hurricane Gustav Strengthens in the Caribbean -- Category 5 Feared

[Dirty]

[Dirty]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 261147
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

...GUSTAV A LITTLE STRONGER...NEARING THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BARAHONA IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST
NICHOLAS TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 265 MILES
...425 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THIS HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY AND NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN HAITI LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...17.5 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$



FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[Dirty]

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

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The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf and the shape of the coastline, in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.

Category One Hurricane:

Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricane Lili of 2002 made landfall on the Louisiana coast as a Category One hurricane. Hurricane Gaston of 2004 was a Category One hurricane that made landfall along the central South Carolina coast.

Category Two Hurricane:

Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Frances of 2004 made landfall over the southern end of Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category Two hurricane. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 made landfall near Drum Inlet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane.

Category Three Hurricane:

Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.

Category Four Hurricane:

Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis (pdf) of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.

Category Five Hurricane:

Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Katrina (pdf), a category 5 storm over the Gulf of Mexico, was still responsible for at least 81 billion dollars of property damage when it struck the U.S. Gulf Coast as a category 3. It is by far the costliest hurricane to ever strike the United States. In addition, Hurricane Wilma (pdf) of 2005 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 882 mb.

[Dirty]

[pvcpipe]

Sort of on topic.....I'm reallly digging The Weather Channel HD...it's strong to quite strong.

[Dirty]

Will have to check it out

[pvcpipe]

down to a tropical storm now...looks like Alabama and Georgia will be getting some more weather by early next week.

[Dirty]

lets hope it doesn't strengthen again.... We need more rain.... Lake us up over a foot.... could go up 3-4 feet after the Mountains got well over a foot of rain

[Dirty]

[nedrow]

waters warm this time of year is all i know

[Dirty]

[Dirty]

[Dirty]

Extreme Danger from Gustav

Preparations continue along the Gulf Coast where Gustav will pose a serious threat to lives and property early next week. Newly formed Tropical Storm Hanna could eventually create problems for the Bahamas in the days following Gustav's landfall.

Today marks the anniversary of one of the most devastating natural disasters in United States history, the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. With the destruction and loss of lives during Katrina fresh of many people's minds, the Gulf Coast prepares for Gustav.

As of 5 a.m. EDT, Gustav was a strong tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center reports the storm will strengthen into a hurricane today as it departs the mountainous island of Jamaica.

The storm will further intensify into a major hurricane by Saturday, pounding the Cayman Islands with torrential rain and destructive winds in the process. Gustav will grow and turn into the dangerous hurricane over the warm waters of the Caribbean.

A hurricane receives the status of major when it becomes a Category 3 storm Related News
Video: Latest Weather Update
Vlog: Meteo Madness - Tropics Very Active
Vlog: Ellio t Abrams - Northeast Weekend Treat
Blog: WeatherMatrix - New Orleans: Emergency Declared


with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph. Gustav threatens to strengthen into a dangerous Category 4 hurricane, accompanied by winds over 130 mph, later this weekend in the Gulf of Mexico.

Whether or not Gustav achieves Category 4 hurricane status, the storm poses a serious threat to lives and property along the Gulf Coast. The storm is certain to slam onshore early next week with its destructive winds and torrential rain. Flooding storm surge will inundate coastal areas to the east of Gustav's landfall.

The highest risk for a direct landfall from Gustav lies from Houston, Texas, to Mobile, Ala. All interests along the Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Gustav as that threat zone is not definite.

The South Regional News story reports conditions will begin to deteriorate along the central Gulf Coast starting on Monday.

Heavy rain, strong winds and pounding surf could batter the Gulf Coast for a prolonged period of time if a strong area of high pressure to the north slows Gustav's forward speed around the time of landfall.

Federal, state and local officials are already taking precautions for those areas being threatened along the central Gulf Coast. The Associated Press reported the governors of Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas have each declared a state of emergency. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal also asked President Bush on Thursday to declare the state a disaster area.

Louisiana activated 5,000 National Guardsmen Wednesday and Thursday. Jindal ordered 1,500 of those men and women to be sent to New Orleans today.

New Orleans' Mayor Ray Nagin stated that an evacuation order was likely for the city, but would not take place until Saturday. Jindal, however, declared residents south of New Orleans may be asked to evacuate as soon as today.

Nagel warned those living in the trailers provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency after Katrina that they should prepare to evacuate immediately. "Travel trailers are unsafe during heavy wind," Nagel stated.

New Orleans is prepared to evacuate 30,000 of its residents. The city would transport those unable to leave on their own by buses. The first 150 of the 700 buses planned to be used during the evacuation arrived on Thursday.

Officials in both Louisiana and Mississippi have also begun preparations to switch interstates into entirely northbound highways to ease the flow of traffic away from the Gulf Coast.

The current forecast calls for Gustav to strike the Louisiana coast west of New Orleans late Monday. The city will still be in close proximity to the storm's devastating impacts.

Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski says whether the eye of Gustav goes east or west of the city, the canals and levees will be put to the test.

Hurricane Katrina passed to the east of New Orleans on this date in 2005. The storm's winds drove the waters of Lake Pontchartrain toward the city, leading to the levee failures. Today, a bell ringing service will take place at 9:38 a.m. CDT, the time the first levee broke during Katrina.

The Associated Press reported that Union Pacific, the nation's largest railroad, received word on Thursday that New Orleans may close its floodgates along Lake Pontchartrain on Saturday. A closure of the floodgates would prevent any rail traffic from moving in or out of New Orleans.

Union Pacific is now shifting its rail traffic that went through New Orleans to Memphis, Tenn., and St. Louis, Mo. Another railroad, Norfolk Southern Corporation, has stopped train traffic south of Hattiesburg, Miss.

Newly formed Tropical Storm Hanna poses less of an immediate threat to the United States. As of 5 a.m., the storm was located about 245 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Hanna had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.

Hanna will travel on a northwestward track through the weekend, becoming a hurricane. Two possible scenarios then exist for Hanna next week.

The storm system pushing showers and thunderstorms through the eastern Great Lakes, which the Midwest Regional News story details further, could sweep Hanna away to the northeast. Bermuda would then be the only land mass impacted by the storm.

Hanna, however, is currently forecast to miss that connection. The storm would then turn southwestward toward the Bahamas.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center is currently monitoring two other tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic Ocean for potential development.

[Cooper]

The next three days are going to be very interesting as far as the development of hurricane Gustav goes. I would think we would know for sure by late tomorrow or early Sunday morning exactly where the hurricane is headed and what kind of impact it is going to make.

You really have to feel for some of those people on the coast down there, if they have to go through this again.

[Reno Paul]

Well speculators in the oil and gas market will have a field day......Gas at a Shell station nearby went up 16 cents a gallon in about two days...

[Dirty]

Ours has held steady for the most part... It went from $3.42 to $3.45 with the Highest I have seen at $3.50

[Reno Paul]

Watching Neal Cavuto and the word is around is that gas prices may go to $5.00 a gallon if Gustav does major damage to the offshore rigs in the Gulf.

Supposed to be another hurricane following Gustav a week later.

[Dirty]

Check out this site... Cool as hell


Track Tropical Storm Hanna, Track Hurricane Gustav / Stormpulse / Hurricane tracking, mapping

[Gambling Fanatic]

Wow would be devasting for the people in that area to sustain another big hurricane..

[Dirty]

WTNT32 KNHC 311750
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
100 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

...GUSTAV WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER....AND FROM WEST OF
CAMERON LOUISIANA TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
TO JUST EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS EXCEPT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...
520 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE TO DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN CATEGORY
FOUR STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
LIKELY THEREAFTER...BUT GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.

GUSTAV IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. NOAA
BUOY 42003 RECENTLY REPORTED 8-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 60 MPH...
97 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF 12 TO 16 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDAL LEVELS IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
OF GUSTAV CROSSES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS
GUSTAV PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES OVER PORTION OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...25.9 N...86.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN








Hurricane GUSTAV Public Advisory