What If Sports: 2009 NCAA Football Power Rankings

[Dirty]

2009 College Football Power Rankings

8/10/2009 Pre-Season Rankings
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
WhatIfSports simulated every possible matchup in the Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those 700,000+ games to evaluate all teams to come up with the best possible ranking of how every team compares to every other team. The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008 and then makes modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Check back August 17th when we begin unveiling projected scores for every FBS game as part of our 2009 College Football Preview. The preview will also include conference standings, projected bowl matchups, updated power rankings and BCS results.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	Florida Gators	-	99.5	56.1	5.4
2.	Texas Longhorns	-	97.9	50.6	8.0
3.	Oklahoma Sooners	-	97.7	49.9	10.3
4.	USC Trojans	-	96.4	49.1	8.0
5.	Alabama Crimson Tide	-	93.5	36.4	6.7
6.	Oklahoma State Cowboys	-	92.5	48.5	17.4
7.	LSU Tigers	-	91.5	40.3	12.4
8.	Mississippi Rebels	-	89.6	40.9	13.6
9.	Ohio State Buckeyes	-	87.2	32.0	9.7
10.	California Golden Bears	-	86.4	33.5	10.7
11.	West Virginia Mountaineers	-	84.7	33.7	11.9
12.	Virginia Tech Hokies	-	84.2	31.5	10.9
13.	Penn State Nittany Lions	-	84.0	33.1	12.9
14.	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	-	82.2	33.7	13.5
15.	Georgia Bulldogs	-	82.0	33.1	15.2
16.	Iowa Hawkeyes	-	81.2	30.0	12.6
17.	Illinois Fighting Illini	-	79.8	33.6	17.7
18.	Florida State Seminoles	-	78.4	30.5	14.1
19.	TCU Horned Frogs	-	77.9	27.8	12.5
20.	Utah Utes	-	76.9	27.5	13.8
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
21.	Houston Cougars	-	76.8	36.8	21.8
22.	Oregon Ducks	-	76.6	31.2	16.4
23.	Boise State Broncos	-	76.3	30.7	17.4
24.	Brigham Young Cougars	-	74.4	31.8	19.2
25.	Kansas Jayhawks	-	73.9	32.7	20.2
26.	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-	72.3	26.3	15.4
27.	Baylor Bears	-	72.0	30.9	19.3
28.	Texas Tech Red Raiders	-	71.5	32.0	21.2
29.	North Carolina Tar Heels	-	71.1	22.0	12.9
30.	Clemson Tigers	-	70.5	22.4	13.0
31.	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	-	69.9	27.3	17.6
32.	Nebraska Cornhuskers	-	69.9	29.6	19.1
33.	Oregon State Beavers	-	69.4	27.6	18.2
34.	Tennessee Volunteers	-	69.2	22.7	13.7
35.	Arizona Wildcats	-	69.0	26.1	17.6
36.	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	-	68.9	28.2	18.7
37.	Missouri Tigers	-	68.9	30.1	21.1
38.	South Florida Bulls	-	68.8	25.9	16.6
39.	Nevada Wolf Pack	-	68.6	31.5	22.0
40.	Pittsburgh Panthers	-	68.4	23.2	15.2
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
41.	Miami (FL) Hurricanes	-	66.7	23.0	14.3
42.	Wisconsin Badgers	-	65.6	27.3	19.9
43.	Air Force Falcons	-	64.6	27.3	20.7
44.	East Carolina Pirates	-	63.5	21.0	16.3
45.	Michigan State Spartans	-	62.0	19.0	14.3
46.	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	-	61.6	29.0	23.8
47.	Minnesota Golden Gophers	-	59.4	21.8	18.4
48.	Cincinnati Bearcats	-	59.1	26.3	22.1
49.	Arkansas Razorbacks	-	57.1	24.9	22.3
50.	Stanford Cardinal	-	57.0	25.6	22.2
51.	North Carolina State Wolfpack	-	55.3	21.5	20.2
52.	Maryland Terrapins	-	55.2	22.1	20.7
53.	Navy Midshipmen	-	54.3	22.9	21.3
54.	Vanderbilt Commodores	-	51.6	16.3	16.9
55.	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	-	51.2	17.2	18.3
56.	Western Michigan Broncos	-	50.4	23.7	24.0
57.	Connecticut Huskies	-	49.8	16.0	17.5
58.	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	-	49.7	20.8	21.2
59.	Arkansas State Red Wolves	-	49.6	20.9	21.9
60.	Arizona State Sun Devils	-	49.5	18.7	19.2
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
61.	Central Michigan Chippewas	-	49.4	20.6	22.5
62.	Troy Trojans	-	48.6	20.5	22.1
63.	Michigan Wolverines	-	46.6	16.9	20.2
64.	Northwestern Wildcats	-	45.5	14.8	18.3
65.	Louisville Cardinals	-	44.2	21.1	25.2
66.	Fresno State Bulldogs	-	42.7	18.0	22.8
67.	Rice Owls	-	41.7	21.0	26.6
68.	South Carolina Gamecocks	-	40.6	13.8	19.5
69.	Colorado State Rams	-	39.5	19.1	25.9
70.	UTEP Miners	-	37.7	21.4	28.5
71.	UCLA Bruins	-	37.6	14.3	21.8
72.	UNLV Rebels	-	36.9	19.0	26.4
73.	Florida International Golden Panthers	-	36.5	15.6	23.2
74.	Duke Blue Devils	-	36.3	16.1	24.1
75.	Bowling Green Falcons	-	36.1	16.8	25.3
76.	Boston College Eagles	-	35.8	13.6	21.7
77.	Marshall Thundering Herd	-	34.5	15.8	25.1
78.	UAB Blazers	-	33.4	20.2	30.1
79.	Mississippi State Bulldogs	-	33.0	13.6	23.1
80.	Ohio Bobcats	-	32.7	14.9	24.5
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
81.	Auburn Tigers	-	32.7	13.4	24.2
82.	Ball State Cardinals	-	31.9	16.2	26.4
83.	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	-	31.1	13.4	24.3
84.	Virginia Cavaliers	-	31.1	12.5	22.9
85.	Colorado Buffaloes	-	30.9	14.3	25.1
86.	Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	-	30.9	16.1	27.6
87.	Akron Zips	-	28.3	17.2	30.0
88.	Memphis Tigers	-	28.1	15.0	28.3
89.	New Mexico Lobos	-	28.0	14.7	27.0
90.	Purdue Boilermakers	-	27.7	10.5	22.7
91.	Florida Atlantic Owls	-	27.2	16.5	28.8
92.	Toledo Rockets	-	27.2	14.0	27.7
93.	San Jose State Spartans	-	26.6	10.9	23.6
94.	Kentucky Wildcats	-	26.5	10.1	22.8
95.	Utah State Aggies	-	26.2	14.6	28.3
96.	Kansas State Wildcats	-	26.1	12.5	26.2
97.	Washington Huskies	-	25.5	13.4	28.1
98.	Iowa State Cyclones	-	25.2	17.0	32.0
99.	Buffalo Bulls	-	25.1	12.1	26.5
100.	Kent State Golden Flashes	-	25.1	15.0	30.1
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
101.	Temple Owls	-	24.3	11.9	25.6
102.	Syracuse Orange	-	24.1	12.3	27.2
103.	Wyoming Cowboys	-	23.9	10.8	24.9
104.	Hawaii Warriors	-	23.6	15.8	31.3
105.	Northern Illinois Huskies	-	23.3	13.4	28.8
106.	Texas A&M Aggies	-	23.3	14.7	30.0
107.	Indiana Hoosiers	-	23.1	12.6	27.9
108.	San Diego State Aztecs	-	21.6	13.6	29.4
109.	UCF Knights	-	20.6	9.6	25.8
110.	Southern Methodist Mustangs	-	18.8	12.7	31.0
111.	Tulane Green Wave	-	18.3	11.9	31.1
112.	Army Black Knights	-	17.4	9.1	26.9
113.	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	-	16.4	10.8	31.7
114.	New Mexico State Aggies	-	16.4	10.5	30.9
115.	Eastern Michigan Eagles	-	13.0	9.5	31.7
116.	North Texas Mean Green	-	12.1	10.0	33.4
117.	Idaho Vandals	-	8.0	7.7	36.2
118.	Washington State Cougars	-	7.1	6.4	33.6
119.	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	-	4.3	5.5	35.8
120.	Miami (OH) RedHawks	-	4.2	6.0	36.4

2009 College Football Power Rankings From WhatIfSports.com

[YeahBoyHowdy]

is olemiss really a top 10 team? can't make up my mind on it.

[Dirty]

I don't believe so until they prove they can handle the pressure

[YeahBoyHowdy]

I don't believe so until they prove they can handle the pressure

exactly. probably top ten talent, but let me see it on the field. we're still talking about olemiss here.

[Dirty]

They have More expectations this year than when Eli was a Senior

[doc mercer]

Nick will bitch :"this is a joke right? fuckin 4 Big 10 ten teams in the top 20?"

[Dirty]

They will not end up that way Doc... This is Pre-Season.. how the fuck do you put a conference in the top Echelon that can't even count it's members correctly

[Reno Paul]

I see Cal at number 10......They are good in rushing and defense but their QB situation is pretty iffy............This year is their best opportunity to beat USC at home.They usually hang tough with them but can't win.........Either Cal goes 12-1 and the Rose Bowl or hit the wall and go 8-5 or 9-4 and go to a lower tier bowl......They got the talent to be up there. Gonna be interesting.......

[Dirty]

This is a great year for USC to get Knocked off with their road schedule

[Dirty]

This is a great year for USC to get Knocked off with their road schedule

[YeahBoyHowdy]

Ole Miss is who we thought the were.

[doc mercer]

Illinois #17?

they may have the worse defv in the B10

[Dirty]

Will be interesting to see how this plays out

[doc mercer]

I just saw the Georgia is #16 and Iowa is #17

GO FUCK YOUR BULLDOG DIRTY AS THE HAWKEYES WILL SWOOP
IN AND PECK YOUR EYES OUT MR BUCK BELUE !!!

[Dirty]

another day to fuck this poll up