seeking advice from my fellow tfz buddies on a hedge...

[cliffmckeon]

so i have a parlay with four games finished from last night, and the last one left is denver moneyline tonight. the parlay pays out 575, and i have 50 dollars invested into it.

so, i don't trust the broncos tonight (my team) because kubiak their ex-cordinator is going to want to have a good showing against his old team and i've heard reports that his starts are going to be playing possible three quarters. however, i do love denver's qb rotation with cutler coming in after the snake.

so, the question is, what would you do, take the free money, or let it ride with the broncos tonight?

thanks for your thoughts.

[maj69er]

When it comes to hedging I totally suck.....

The way I would see this is this, Id rather get something than nothing! But then again its down to how much money you got invested aswell.

[STITCH]

IF IT WAS ME I WOULD ASSURE MYSELF OF A PAYOUT. I WOULD PUT $275 TO WIN $250 ON HOUSTON +4.5. THIS WAY IF HOUSTON WINS OUT RIGHT YOU STILL GET PAID $200. IF DENVER WINS BUT DOESN'T COVER THE 4.5 YOU GET $825. FINALLY IF DENVER WINS AND COVERS THE 4.5 YOU WIN $300. BUT THAT'S JUST ME, I'M IN THIS TO WIN MONEY. BEST OF LUCK TO YOU WITH WHATEVER YOU DECIDE.

GLTA
STITCH

[cliffmckeon]

IF IT WAS ME I WOULD ASSURE MYSELF OF A PAYOUT. I WOULD PUT $275 TO WIN $250 ON HOUSTON +4.5. THIS WAY IF HOUSTON WINS OUT RIGHT YOU STILL GET PAID $200. IF DENVER WINS BUT DOESN'T COVER THE 4.5 YOU GET $825. FINALLY IF DENVER WINS AND COVERS THE 4.5 YOU WIN $300. BUT THAT'S JUST ME, I'M IN THIS TO WIN MONEY. BEST OF LUCK TO YOU WITH WHATEVER YOU DECIDE.

GLTA
STITCH

thanks stitch, i was thinking maybe a small moneyline play on houston, but with your plan i'm coming out ahead no matter what with the possibility of hitting both.

[maj69er]

IF IT WAS ME I WOULD ASSURE MYSELF OF A PAYOUT. I WOULD PUT $275 TO WIN $250 ON HOUSTON +4.5. THIS WAY IF HOUSTON WINS OUT RIGHT YOU STILL GET PAID $200. IF DENVER WINS BUT DOESN'T COVER THE 4.5 YOU GET $825. FINALLY IF DENVER WINS AND COVERS THE 4.5 YOU WIN $300. BUT THAT'S JUST ME, I'M IN THIS TO WIN MONEY. BEST OF LUCK TO YOU WITH WHATEVER YOU DECIDE.

GLTA
STITCH

Totally sound advice there STITCH!! :D

[STITCH]

IT'S ALL ABOUT THE PAYOUT BROTHER. GLAD I COULD HELP.

[BowlMeOne]

Cliff

In terms of the longrun, hedging will destroy your bankroll. Just think of the situation you have here. In tonites game you are risking $50 to win $575. You have yourself a moneyline of +1150 on a team that should be around -200. DO NOT give any of this away... EVER! This game is all about long term value, and accumulating. I don't advise playing parlays in the first place, but the reason they pay so well is that they all have to win, if you get yourself in the mode of hedging out..you are making parlays even worse. Assuring a profit seems nice, but trust me this is a long term game. You can't give away edges like this. Just think of it like this...if you saw Pinny with Den -200, and your local has Den +1150....how much would you try to get down? Hope it works out for you no matter what you decide.

Gl

BMO

[STITCH]

NOT ABOUT TO ARGUE BMO. BUT THE STATEMENT THAT HEDGING WILL DESTROY YOUR BANKROLL IS SLIGHTLY STRANGE. WHY WOULDN'T ANY RATIONAL PERSON WANT TO BE UP $200 IN A WORST CASE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING UP $825 RATHER THAN BEING DOWN $50 AND KICKING THEMSELVES IN THE ASS FOR NOT ASSURING THEMSELVES A PAYOUT.

[BowlMeOne]

NOT ABOUT TO ARGUE BMO. BUT THE STATEMENT THAT HEDGING WILL DESTROY YOUR BANKROLL IS SLIGHTLY STRANGE. WHY WOULDN'T ANY RATIONAL PERSON WANT TO BE UP $200 IN A WORST CASE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BEING UP $825 RATHER THAN BEING DOWN $50 AND KICKING THEMSELVES IN THE ASS FOR NOT ASSURING THEMSELVES A PAYOUT.

No problem...its not an argument, its just a discussion. I understand where your coming from. I just know for a fact that in the long run...keeping the play is the optimal way to go. You will net more profit in the "LONG RUN" by not hedging. Most people don't understand this, and will take the sure money right now. All the hedges add up over time, and you will make less. To win at this you have to apply every edge. The reason its not profitable to hedge here, is because you have tremendous value on Denver, but you are going to bet the opposite side at no edge. You never want to put money in play when there is NO EDGE. No matter which way he goes..he has an overall EDGE on tonights game...no doubt...but the optimal way to play it is to let it ride if he's looking for the best long term outlook.

Think of it like Blackjack. If you are dealt a BJ, and the dealer shows an Ace....do you take even money ? Lock up the profit or let it ride? If you take the sure winner you are giving away a HUGE edge. You simply cannot give up edges if you want to be successful.

Having +1150 on a game that should be -200 is an incredible edge, and I would NEVER give any away. Thats how I look at it.

GL

BMO

[STITCH]

I UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU'RE SAYING. BUT(YOU HAD TO KNOW THERE WOULD BE A BUT) I BELIEVE YOUR BLACKJACK ANALOGY MISSES THE MARK IN THE SENSE THAT OF COURSE YOU LET IT RIDE. YOU PUSH IN THE WORST CASE WITH A CHANCE AT A 150 PERCENT RETURN. YOU DON'T LOSE YOUR INITIAL BET IF THE DEALER PULLS A BLACKJACK.

[cliffmckeon]

bowlmeone, you brought up a very good point. if it wasn't pre-season i definetly would let this fly, however, i just think passing up a free two bills.

i got more time to ponder, preseason has been so good to me that i may just let it ride. plus this is my team. and they are so deep at many positions. hmmm...

[BowlMeOne]

Yes the BJ scenario is a no risk situation, however that dosen't matter. Its still a risk/reward situation. Money saved, is the same as money earned. Lets look at it mathematically. Lets assume that the proper ODDS on this matchup is -200/+200. If that is the case then Denver will win 66.7 out of 100, and Hou will win 33.3 out of 100 matchups.

If he lets it ride...33.3 x -$50 = -$1665 on the houston outright wins, whilst

66.7 x +$575 = +$36352 from the Denver wins...netting $36687 if he were to play this situation 100 times..which avgs out to $366 per play. So this play right now has an expected value of $366.

If you hedge it..(we have to do some more assumptions) there are 3 possible outcomes.

1 Houston wins outright
2 Den wins by 1-4
3 Denver wins by 5 or more


We already have figured out that Hou will win 33.3%, so of the 66.7 % that Den wins, how many will land beteen 1-4 pt margin of victory? Lets just say 15% for arguments sake, and that leaves 51.7% of the time Den wins by 5 or more.

So if we go by this data the following is true...

Hou wins 33.3% x (+250 -$50)= +$6660
Den wins by 1-4 pts 15% x +825 = +$12375
Den wins by 5+ 51.7% x (-275+575) = +15510

If you sum up the results you get +34545 and divide that by 100 results and you come up with an expected value of $345 per play, which is $21 per play less then letting it ride.


You can play with the #'s, but thats the math behind the madness.


Like I said its all about risk reward, the optimal play here is letting it ride. You can hedge for piece of mind if worried about losing $50. See for most people the thinking gets swayed. When the play is made they consider it risking $50 to win $575, but now that there is only one game left they are thinking they are risking the possible $575 win !!!


To be succesful at sports betting you must take advantage of every single edge you can find, and giving away an edge by hedging is very damaging . Hope this makes sense.


Good topic/thread guys....we need more stuff like this.


bmo

[cliffmckeon]

excellent post, very educating...

[MidMo]

This is a great topic. I have no idea what I would do; I only wish i was one game from winning a 4 team parlay! LOL

[maj69er]

This is a great topic. I have no idea what I would do; I only wish i was one game from winning a 4 team parlay! LOL

I think a lot of people feeel the same way LOL :D

[cliffmckeon]

alright, the verdict is in, i'm going to put 50 on the texans straight up, that way i come out 50 ahead one way, 520 the other...

hopefully my champ bailey and my broncos don't let me down.

[MidMo]

alright, the verdict is in, i'm going to put 50 on the texans straight up, that way i come out 50 ahead one way, 520 the other...

hopefully my champ bailey and my broncos don't let me down.

GL. I think I would have played it the same way!

[STITCH]

Yes the BJ scenario is a no risk situation, however that dosen't matter. Its still a risk/reward situation. Money saved, is the same as money earned. Lets look at it mathematically. Lets assume that the proper ODDS on this matchup is -200/+200. If that is the case then Denver will win 66.7 out of 100, and Hou will win 33.3 out of 100 matchups.

If he lets it ride...33.3 x -$50 = -$1665 on the houston outright wins, whilst

66.7 x +$575 = +$36352 from the Denver wins...netting $36687 if he were to play this situation 100 times..which avgs out to $366 per play. So this play right now has an expected value of $366.

If you hedge it..(we have to do some more assumptions) there are 3 possible outcomes.

1 Houston wins outright
2 Den wins by 1-4
3 Denver wins by 5 or more


We already have figured out that Hou will win 33.3%, so of the 66.7 % that Den wins, how many will land beteen 1-4 pt margin of victory? Lets just say 15% for arguments sake, and that leaves 51.7% of the time Den wins by 5 or more.

So if we go by this data the following is true...

Hou wins 33.3% x (+250 -$50)= +$6660
Den wins by 1-4 pts 15% x +825 = +$12375
Den wins by 5+ 51.7% x (-275+575) = +15510

If you sum up the results you get +34545 and divide that by 100 results and you come up with an expected value of $345 per play, which is $21 per play less then letting it ride.


You can play with the #'s, but thats the math behind the madness.


Like I said its all about risk reward, the optimal play here is letting it ride. You can hedge for piece of mind if worried about losing $50. See for most people the thinking gets swayed. When the play is made they consider it risking $50 to win $575, but now that there is only one game left they are thinking they are risking the possible $575 win !!!


To be succesful at sports betting you must take advantage of every single edge you can find, and giving away an edge by hedging is very damaging . Hope this makes sense.


Good topic/thread guys....we need more stuff like this.


bmo

YOUR MATH IS GREAT. BUT WHAT YOU FAIL TO FACTOR IN IS THAT THIS IS THE FOURTH GAME OF A FOUR TEAM PARLAY NOT JUST A STRAIGHT BET. I'M NOT SAYING YOUR FORMULA IS WRONG JUST FLAWED. DO I BELIEVE THE BRONCOS WIN OUTRIGHT TODAY YES. BUT THAT DOESN'T MATTER. THERE IS STILL A FACTOR(I DON'T KNOW THE PERCENTAGE) OF THE LIKLEYHOOD OF HITTING A FOUR TEAM PARLAY, THAT MUST BE ENTERED INTO THIS EQUATION TO GET TRUE ODDS OF RETURN.

[cliffmckeon]

YOUR MATH IS GREAT. BUT WHAT YOU FAIL TO FACTOR IN IS THAT THIS IS THE FOURTH GAME OF A FOUR TEAM PARLAY NOT JUST A STRAIGHT BET. I'M NOT SAYING YOUR FORMULA IS WRONG JUST FLAWED. DO I BELIEVE THE BRONCOS WIN OUTRIGHT TODAY YES. BUT THAT DOESN'T MATTER. THERE IS STILL A FACTOR(I DON'T KNOW THE PERCENTAGE) OF THE LIKLEYHOOD OF HITTING A FOUR TEAM PARLAY, THAT MUST BE ENTERED INTO THIS EQUATION TO GET TRUE ODDS OF RETURN.

i think he was isolating my situation right now with it being down to one game. i don't think he was looking at odds of the parlay hitting in general. but the fact that i have one -200 moneyline left to cash it, and the odds of that -200 moneyline to hit.

[maj69er]

all these numbers flying around :? LOL whayever happens buddy hope you make some moolah tonight BOL