WC Ramblings by a Swanky Sweden

[farbror]

Hiya, A friend kindly asked me to air my WC opinions over here. Since I do not mind sharing my opinions and since I was ver flattered by the request....well, here I am!

*DISCLAIMER*
I do not claim to be an expert on international soccer but I have strong opinions and I try really hard to be clear about my way of reasoning which lead to the opinion/pick.

Maybe you'll find some interesting nuggets in my flow of words and silly spelling.

I do think you can get som fair prices shopping around for WC futures at the Sport Exchanges. Since I am a proud Swede you'll see that I use Sweden as the Golden Standard for evaluating chances. That method is of course a wee bit flawed since we all know that "A is better than B" and "B is better than C" does not imply that "A is better than C". There are a lot of match up issues involved.

Anyhow, I just cannot see why ENGLAND should be (about) +900 to win the wholw tournament. Rooney might not be able to play and have a quick look at the historic data on the SWEDEN vs. ENGLAND games in modern times. Sweden is listed as about +4500 which probably is fair or slightly on the "shortish" side. Either SWEDEN is excellent value (which I doubt) or ENGLAND at +900 (or so) is plain robbery.


Acctually I think you get excellent value betting against ENGLAND qualifying for the second round. More then +500 are to be found. SWEDEN and ENGLAND are in the same qualifying group along with PARAGUAY and TRINIDAD&TOBAGO. I think TT has done pretty well to reach the tournament and I think that the O/U on the number of goals scored by TT in the qualifying group should be 0.5.

ERGO: SWEDEN's group is a three horse race. My guesstimate is that ENGLAND might have a 20-25% chance to have an early summer vacation.

[maj69er]

I agree with you mate....england are useless.......

[farbror]

Yes, the English side is pretty solid but so are all european sides. +900 is a joke.

[maj69er]

I am quite saddened to think that amount of money that english players get paid, that when 1 gets injured in this case Rooney our hopes of winning have gone. I have said from the start that even with Rooney england will not win. They were made 2nd favs because they beat Argentina in a game which Argentina fell asleep for 5 mins at the end of the game.

[raiders72001]

farbror- Thanks for joining us. I can't wait for the WC to start. :D

[farbror]

I think I will be able to present some opinions/ideas/(bad?) Bets mid "weekish".

[Duckstabber]

Welcome aboard, Farbror.

[farbror]

Thank You, Mr Duck!