Week 14 MLB action

[NattyBumpo]

9 out of 13 Weeks of profit...

194-211-4 overall (+8.27 units)

Gonna be a short week for me. Im leaving town with the family on the 9th til 14th. Maybe I can get off to a good start and wont end up giving it back in the 2nd half of the week. Lets hope Monday goes well.

Monday action:

963 - Toronto +141 @ NY Yankees (1.5 units)

A three game sweep is somewhat common in baseball but a four game sweep is another story. I think a nuetral field would easily favor Toronto whith this pitching matchup and I think Yankee stadium should favor the Jays even more in this case. The fly ball is a pitchers worst enemy in this ballpark and it has long been a weapon of choice for Pettitte. The resulting struggles for Andy in Yankee stadium this year have been due to not being able to pitch to his strength in my opinion. He did well last time out but he has struggled at home for the most part. Romero, on the other hand, is sporting a near 2 to 1 ground to flyball ratio which will make for a nice fit for him to exploit his own strength. Romero should also benefit more with the grass infield. I hope this line is not a trap, but I can only believe it is a normal Public Yankee line because the Yanks have been winning and not many are as familiar with Romero who is having a much better season than Pettitte. By the way Toronto can hit too. Just hope the bullpen doesnt give this one away should it go my way initially. Ill take my chances with this generous dog that probably should be closer to even money in my opinion.

953 - Atlanta +108 vs Cubs (1 unit)

Love to bet an ace pitcher off a bounceback win. Braves have hit some lately. Cubs still thier own worst enemy even though I think both of these struggling teams will be in the hunt near the end. Mostly just a value play on a pitcher I really like. Wells is very good also so this is almost a crap shoot. I believe the Cubs may be somewhat distracted with some lineup shakedowns as Reed and Ramirez are activated from the DL. Another crapshoot but they may not be sharp after thier time off.

952 - Philly -153 vs Cincy (0.6 units)

952 - Philly RL +135 (0.4 units)

I look for another good homestand from the Phils after a piss poor road trip. I also look for Hamel to right the ship against a Cincy offense in need of some vigara for thier limp bats.

960 - Arizona -163 vs SD (0.7 units)

960 - Arizona RL +115 (0.3 units)

I think as long as your laying less than -170 against Silva, you should take it with almost any team in the league. Garland seems to be decent of late and the D Backs are trying to light a fire under thier own asses while there is still time. Looking at a possible big home series before the all star break.

962 - SF -165 vs Florida (0.7 units)

962 - SF RL +130 (0.3 units)

Looking to fade the fish with a big coast to coast road trip after battling some divisional action and a successful month of June. West is a pitcher who has looked good but I feel is quite probable to take a big crap as time goes forward. His numbers dont really jive to well with me. Cain is all one can wish for in a starter and Frisco is playing well enough to back him up and continue this homestand.

I really hate the value in the last three games: PHI, ARI, and SF. Therefore, as you can see, I have used my ML/RL combo to lower the juice. I really think these are solid sides, its just that the oddsmakers seem to be seeing it the same way and reeeeeeaaaaallllllly are hoping for action on the other side. At least thats what Im thinking.

As you know Ive been wrong before so ....

Good luck and Peace.

[delund67]

Might be scary for you, but I had the same ideas, and similar plays on AZ and SF, and hoping Philly drops to -149, or I'll just play it for beer money... Hope it's a good day and a good vacation

Delund

[NattyBumpo]

Thanks Delund, looks like we got the win but I couldnt get the gravy on the run line action. Oh well at least I didnt lose anything and made an inch or two of progress.

I really hate laying any kind of chalk over -150. Its really hard to make any long term money when your laying chalk of -160 or more when even the best teams rarely win over 60% of the time. At least the ML/RL combos give me a chance to beat the juice without risking a loss on a one run win. Willl probably have a lot of these in the second half of the season as the books will be a lot better at setting lines and solid dogs will be a little more difficult to pick.

[NattyBumpo]

Wednesday action:

958 - Arizona RL +110 vs SD (1 unit)

Scherzer is very good and seems to have the Padres number, while Gaudin blows, and the D Backs seem to enjoy his outings much more than he does. Padres on a three game slide.... as usual. Runs can come in bunches in Arizona and I feel its much more likely they come for the home team in this matchup.

962 - Philly -150 vs Cincy (0.6 units)

962 - Philly RL +124 (0.4 units)

At worst case scenario I will venture that Lopez and Bailey are probably on equal ground as far as thier ability to win games. Jury is out on Lopez but he looked very adequate against the Mets in his first start this year. Homer has one very poor and one decent outing since being recalled with an impressive minor league stint. The biggest difference is everything else favoring the Phillys. I will forgive them for coming out flat off the 21 run blowout and expect them to bounceback strong and take the series lead here.

963 - LA Dodgers -144 @ NY Mets (1 unit)

963 - LA Dodgers RL +110 (0.5 units)

Kuroda, who is hitting his stride and in top form, will find the spacious stadium the Mets provide to be just like home. Perez coming off the DL should be perfect fodder for the Dodger bats that seem to come alive every time they venture east. Unless Olivia got a testicle implant while taking a DL R and R break, I dont see him dominating the Dodgers with the run support the Mets are providing thier starters these days.

977 - NY Yanquis RL +120 @ Minnesota (1 unit)

Took my shot with Minny in the first game and ate crow. I think my mistake was comparing each teams stats over recent history without taking into account the level of competition each team faced. Anyway, I was wrong. I am flipping here as I think the Yankees get a better matchup than before with a lefty pitching for Minnesota and a right handed Burnette going for the Yankees. This situation seemingly favored Minny on Tuesday with the better pitcher (in my opinion) and the Yanks still decimated the ball. They get a shakier starter in Perkins (again... in my opinion) and a lefty, of which the Yankees have better hitting stats against. It looks like the Yanks could sweep this series from what I witnessed on tuesday and with the bats as warm as they are and a road team with an AL DH, I feel the run line is very probably should the Yankees come to play. I know a lot of people will disparage Burnette, but if you cut his season into two halves we will find that Burnette has been better and more consistant than CC and probably any other starter in the Yankee rotation. I almost got whiplash myself when I broke his lines down but its the God honest truth. Hes been ace material over his last eight or nine starts. There have been only 2 hiccups in this period. Word.

Good luck and Peace.

[Dirty]

keep up the solid Handicapping man... Thanks for the write ups