Week 13 MLB action

[NattyBumpo]

8 out of 12 Weeks ending with a profit.

176-198-4 overall (+4.65 units)

Monday action:

902 - Pittsburgh -102 vs Cubs (1.1 unit)

Cubs stink. Pittsburgh is playing very good in June and is tough at home. We also have a pitching edge and Duke is solid at home and in very good form coming into this game. Hitting numbers slightly favor the Buckos also. Wrong team favored at this time. Pitt also stays home while Cubs travel off a rivalry and I cant imagine they can beat a better team on the road when they cant come away respectably in the hometown battle against the White Sox.

906 - Milwaukee -128 vs NY Mets ( 1.5 units)

Mets coming off the wrong end of an emotionally draining sweep with a big rival and have to travel late night to Milwaukee who have won three straight at home. Nieve vs Looper looks to favor the Mets but Nieve is still green and there is enough video now for advance scouts to get a game plan for the Milwaukee bats. Looper is not my favorite pitcher to back but gotta play the situation and the win streak vs the losing streak.

911 - Colorado +107 @ LA Dodgers (1 unit)

Gotta go to the well one more time with the hot team as a dog. Cant believe I only played them once against Oakland but a lot of it had to do with some hot pitchers on the Oakland side. Rockies got it done anyway and I think they will take advantage of Wolf, who I feel has been a bit shaky lately. Wolf will be a lot more comfy in Dodger stadium but Jimenez has been better. Think well have a hitting advantage as well.

923 - Detroit -110 @ Oakland (1.1 units)

Leaned this way earlier and love the line move. Oakland in quite the funk and Porcellos chance for a milestone win for a rookie has me convinced we get a full effort from the Tigers.

2 Tm parlay:
919 - Angels +118 @ Texas w/under 10.5 -105 ((0.4 units) to win 1.3 units

With the way Texas has been embarrassed by deception type pitchers lately, Ill give OSullivan a shot. Figure this line is a bit high with the way Texas has been scoring lately and the Halos will have to keep em down again to win this one. Padillas been pretty decent against the Angels too. I like the offense the Angels have been putting together lately (even though I dislike them personally) so Ill try a low risk parlay.

Caution: the 2 tm parlays have been duds for me lately.

Peace.

[Finance]

Good Luck tonight Natty - I'm on Milwaukee and the Angels and I just put in Detroit - let's have a great start to the week!!!

[NattyBumpo]

Tuesday action:

967 - Seattle/NY Yanquis over 10 +100 (1 unit)

Mariners not an offensive jugernaut but things have been picking up for them. Theyll need runs to compete with Morrow on the hill, who is little more than a long relief pitcher. So far the longer he goes the more he gives up. Chamberlain is overated in my opinion. Although the Yanks could cover this by themselves, I feel Seattle might add a few of thier own. And of course we get the newest home run capital in MLB..... Yankee Stadium.

960 - Milwaukee +125 vs NY Mets (1 unit)

Milwaukee is always a live dog at home and with the shape the Mets are in of late they are even more so. Yes the great Santana is taking the hill but be aware of a few things: 1 - Games in which he recieves run support are few and far between. 2 - He is a fly ball pitcher in a park that is not kind to fly ballers and the Brewers tend to like leftys at home. 3 - Although he is smart enough to limit damage in most cases, he has been very human and tending to walk a thin line in a majority of his recent outings. Burns is a wild card but that might help since the Mets wont have a good game plan on him.

961 - San Fransisco +182 @ St Louis (1 unit)

Frisco has been hot lately. I know Carpenter is one of the best arms around right now but hell have to be at his best to get another win with the way the Cards have been hitting and scoring of late. The Big Unit seems to be getting better and better as the season progresses and with a handfull of really strong outings over the month I will gladly take him at this price. Total of 7 shows the books dont expect a lot of scoring so it could be one big swing of the bat that wins this. With Frisco hot and the Redbirds not I like the odds here.

965 - Colorado +159 @ LA Dodgers (1 unit)

Billingsly has not been as good of late as he was earlier in the year. The fact that he pitches half his games in spacious Dodger stadium and Marquis pitches half his in Coors field makes me discount the disparity in each pitchers ERA. Marquis is a quality pitcher and the Dodgers are not as hot as many would like to believe. Theyre around .500 for June while the Rockies are the much hotter comodity during this period. Ill take this generous number with the team that is playing better at this time.


Good luck and Peace.

[Dirty]

Good luck dude and keep up the winning

[Finance]

Good luck man - hope those doggies bark....

[Micelli]

GL Natty:suntan

[NattyBumpo]

Been missing some days over here. My apologies.
Some very good, some horrific. Ill try to do better.

Friday action:

902 - Cubs -163 vs Milwaukee (1.5 units)

The difference between Suppan and Zambrano: Suppan is a very poor pitcher who has just enough good to really good starts each year to keep him in the big leagues. Zambrano is a really good pitcher who implodes just enough to make you scratch your head and say "can I trust this fucker at -163?" The question for today is: "Do ya feel lucky punk..... well, do ya?"

Think its time to start playing the Cubs, and yes ... I feel a little lucky too. Problem here is, the books are on it like white on rice. Might not be much value on the Cubs in the near future. Oh yeah, the Cubs have won four in a row and Milwaukee hits the road off a 5-4 homestand.

904 - Florida -145 vs Pittsburgh (1 unit)

904 - Florida RL +135 (0.5 units)

Florida has had a playoff caliber month of June and continue thier homestand riding a 3 game win streak hosting Pittsburgh. With the last round of trades it looks as if the two most fadeable teams in the league right now are Cleveland and Pittsburgh. I dont have a lot of faith in Mortenson (or any pitcher Bobby Cox is willing to farm out) and see a lot more upside in Volstad who should manage a quality start against the swiss cheese and morally downtrodden Bucko lineup.

919 - Oakland +108 @ Cleveland (1 unit)

Continuing with the most fadeable teams theme here and getting a plus price on a future Multi Million dollar Yankee pitcher in Trevor Cahill. Looks like Billy Bean is at it again with another future free agency darling. Oakland has tagged a couple of so so leftys of late and Im betting Huff is next on the list.

925 - CWS +130 @ KC (1 unit)

Looks like the White Sox bats are coming around with the pitching and we might have two Chicago teams to "buy" on right now. Might get some actual value as the Sox hit the road. Tough to go against Greinke but not tough to go against the Royals right now. Everything but Greinke sucks right now on the Royals, so its a good thing Zach wont be hitting in this one.

Good luck and Peace.

[Dirty]

good luck man...

[NattyBumpo]

My fade the Indians and Pirates theory bit the dust today. Not sure why, but Im not gonna play against them tomorrow or possibly the rest of the weekend series til Im sure the Universe is back in proper alignment. Saturdays games should tell the real tale so Im gonna sit back on these and watch very closely. Still think the Cubs are a team that might be starting to bust out, but they didnt look too hot at the plate today. With Hardens home/daygame splits I will have to pass on them, even if its a very tempting 3 win home team vs a 3 loss road team juicy system play.

2-3 for Friday (-0.15 units)

Saturday action:

971 - CWS -119 @ KC (1.5 units)

971 - CWS RL +140 (0.5 units)

Well heres one bold prediction that seems to be panning out for the time being. Sox hit the shit out of Greinke today. I like Hochevar since he was last recalled from the minors but Floyd is and has been much better. The KC bats are also whiffing quite a bit also. Gonna ride the Ozzie crazytrain as long as I see good value and winning ways.

Quite a few leans for Saturday, but had some sort of reservation on each. Just figured its not my time to spread a lot of dough on a bunch of half hearted plays. Some I passed on were Colorado, Cubs, Dodgers and Detroit. Ill be pissed if these all win but its ok as long as the White Sox come through.

Good luck and Peace.

[Dirty]

Great job and good luck today man

[NattyBumpo]

Thanks Dirty. Same to you and happy 4th.