Week 10 MLB action

[NattyBumpo]

Had a great week 9. Up over 5 units for the year and out of the red.

Monday action:

955 - Pittsburgh +130 @ Atlanta (1 unit)

Pirates are playing better on the road right now than Atlanta is at home. Even when Atlanta gets a few runs the bullpen is more than willing to give em right back. Zach Duke is becoming a solid and consistant stud on the hill. Looks to be in top form right now. See no reason he cant fare well against the numbers Atlanta has put up recently.

962 - Texas RL +130 vs Toronto (1 unit)

Texas bats just scary at home and Cassey Janssen does not appear to be a pitcher that can put hitters away. He looks mediocre at best. Seems to be a pitch to contact type guy and I think that will match up poorly with the Rangers. Just cant find any reason to doubt Feldman who is emerging as one of many rising stars in the league this year.

957 -Arizona +160 @ SD (1 unit)

Not too scared to go against Peavy here since he must have spent a good portion of his 5 days rest recovering from a nasty upper respiratory infection. Give him credit for trying to pitch sick as a dog last time out but Im sure he cant be in top form yet. Of course you gotta get back on the horse ASAP and keep that arm in tune, but I dont think Peavy will have his best stuff this soon. Im also still fading the Padres when the price and situation is right and even if Peavy was at the peak of health I would have to still take this play against the other eight players on the team. Garland can be a bit of a crapshoot but I think he should give a quality start with all the gaping holes in the Friars batting lineup. I also think the marathon game will hurt the status of the Padres bullpen a little more than Zona. I know for sure we will not see Heath Bell and a lot of Zonas better arms only got in the teens for pitch counts. Dont have all the rest time and pitch counts but Im certain the last two innings should favor the Dbacks with Bell out of the equation.

966 - Oakland -133 vs Minnesota (0.6 units)

966 - Oakland RL +160 (0.4 units)

Oakland was hot on the road and is still hot at home. They get to stay home and host the travelling Twins who have a dismal road record and do not strike me as doing anything special (in fact they are slipping a bit lately). Outman has some solid numbers that should result in wins if the recent offensive surge by his teamates continue. Ive seen this kind of run by Oakland nearly year after year. Sometimes it actually has some substance and they become a real threat no matter how bad they looked early on. Time will tell but it makes sense that Billy Beans number crunching averages out eventually. The results just seem to come in spurts a lot of the time. Those spurts can seem unbelievable and we often think its all a mirage. Its real .... while it lasts anyway and I will gladly take advantage.

Good luck and Peace.

[Finance]

Good Luck my man - great week last week!!

[Double J]

Like the card A LOT Natty --- good luck to you! Great write ups!

[Micelli]

nice job on philly last night

[NattyBumpo]

1-4 for Monday (-2.95 units)

Bad breaks galore in every game I played Monday. Heart chewed up and spit out more than I care to remember. Nothing went my way. Not getting off my horse here 'cause this spot sucks. Lets keep on riding.

For Tuesday:

904 - Florida +110 vs St.Louis (1 unit)

Redbirds not playing good enough to be favored on the road right now and fading Carpenter off a complete game. Josh Johnson is plenty good and Florida stays home while STL travels.

930 - Oakland -105 vs Minnesota (1.1 units)

Riding Oakland while the moneyball statistics start to shake out for Mr Bean. Minny still bad on the road. Both starters a little shaky but when you break it into home/road splits we see Baker bad on the road and Anderson good at home.

2 tm parlay:
911 - Colorado +125 @ Milwaukee w/over 9.5 -115 (0.5 units)
to win 1.6 units

Colorado coaching changes seem to have produced emmediate results in the hitting department. Guys are taking what they can and satisfied not to try and win by themselves. Quality at bats are the order of the day and we are seeing the results as the guys start to buy in. At least thats my take on it. Hammel is an up and down pitcher but Looper has been living on borrowed time with smoke and mirrors for quite some time. His numbers dont jive with his success so far. Colorados new life at the plate should rock his world. Thinking the Rockies can cover most of this over, thus the correlated parlay.

Good luck and Peace.

[Dirty]

Good Luck Man..... I am on Oakland myself

[Finance]

Good Luck tonight Natty - keep swinging......

[NattyBumpo]

Thanks guys. Dont think I could match my last slump if I tried. Took a couple of things out of it I hope will help me in the future though. Im sure I bounce back off a bad luck Monday.

Ive been struggling with my inner psychic senses vs my rational rules of common sense regarding good value and reached a way to appease both.

Adding:

2 tm parlay: (1unit pays 1.22 units)

916 - LA Dodgers -195 vs Padres
933 - Cleveland -215 vs KC

I can continue to fade the Padres with Billingsly without laying a 1.5 run line play. I fear the runline here because the Dodgers are still in a relative offensive funk and Young has good numbers against them. He also fares well in big pitchers parks. Nothing to fear from Padres one man band offense. I know this is bush and bad karma but I would walk Gonzalez and bean Eckstein just on principle whenever the situation allows. Call me evil. Gotta luv and respect thier abilities (and I do when Im on thier side) but fuck em when Im against. Fuckers!!!!!

Clevelands offense is waking up but so far they are up and down on a day to day basis and Im not sure I can depend on them to cover a run ling either. Anyone remember the last time these two pitchers matched up. I had a nice dog win with KC. It was a bad win as Skerry Kerry blew a four run lead in the bottom of the ninth. Think Cleveland wins big here but my head for value abhors laying -110 and -1.5 runs.

Hope I dont get burned but by doing it this way I avoid risking 2 units and avoid laying 1.5 runs on what I consider poor value in both games. I think both these sides have a very strong likelyhood of a straight win. Would be very surprised to see them lose today.

[NattyBumpo]

2-2 for Tuesday (+0.82 units)

2 tm parlay: 1 unit to win 1.49 units

977 - Detroit -136 @ CWS
958 - Atlanta -230 vs Pittsburgh

Love Atlanta with young ace Jurrjens and "shot in the arm offense" Mclouth doing a nice job of embarrassing his former team. Dont trust any pitcher that Atlanta coaches are willing to discard. Verlander is virtually unhittable vs a flagging Danks and an all or nothing Sox offense. Gotta parlay this to cheat the juice. Did it last night with Cleveland and Dodgers. Hope I can get away with it again.


956 - NY Mets +117 vs Philly (1 unit)

980 - Oakland -125 vs Minnesota (1.3 units)

966 - LA Dodgers RL +100 vs SD (1 unit)

Good luck and Peace.

[Finance]

Good Luck tonight man - I'm on Oakland again too....

Hope the parlay hits again tonight.....you had the Dodgers game called right - if you had told me SD was going to score 4 last night I would have really thought they'd win that game....oh well, we both ended up .500 and +$$, which is what counts....

Time for a sweep!!

[NattyBumpo]

Took it in the rear Wednesday. Led in two games that were blown late. The Dodger game was a no action with a pitching change I am confident the Dodgers would have shelled Leblanc. What can one do except take it like a man and fight on.

0-3 for Wednesday. Ill tally the damage later.

Thursday action:

926 - Boston +135 vs NY Yanquis (2 units)

919 - KC RL +120 @ Cleveland (1 unit)

905 - Cubs RL +110 @ Houston (1 unit)

915 - Detroit -115 @ CWS (1.5 units)

Lets get em today. GOOOOO RED SOX.

[Dirty]

how do you not take the Red Sox at this number? Good Luck

[NattyBumpo]

Bostons rally saved me from a horrific day.

1-3 for Thursday (-0.80 units)

No time to write. Its time to take off the gloves.

Friday action:

956 - Philly +113 vs Boston (1 unit)

958 - Pittsburgh +121 vs Detroit (1 unit)

970 - Milwaukee -124 vs CWS (1 unit)

970 - Milwaukee RL +155 (0.4 units)

972 - Texas +100 vs LA Dodgers (1 units)

974 - KC -112 vs Cincinnati (1 unit)

974 - KC RL +170 (0.4 units)

Good luck and Peace.

[NattyBumpo]

Dammit, my Saturday action is not here. I thought I posted. Sorry. Went 4-2. Oh well my bad. :idk


Sunday action:

980 - NY Mets/NY Yanquis over 9 -105 (1.05 units)

Both teams seem dialed in offensively. Burnettes gems are few and far between and Johan hasnt been himself for four games now. Hes a flyballer and we saw what happened to Livan in this bandbox. I would venture to predict hes gonna give up at least two dingers tomorrow. I wouldnt worry about the ump, Jim Wolfs', under tendencies in this game. He couldnt hold the last Yankee/RedSox game he umped at Boston under 20 runs. But he does have more unders than overs.

962 - Pittsburgh -108 vs Detroit (1.1 units)

Pittsburgh woke up today after thier sleepy homecoming on Friday while Detroit continued to scrap for offense. After dispatching the shifty Galarraga they continued to pick apart Jim Leylands thinly stretched bullpen. Saw enough here to think the Buckos can capitalize on the unfortunate downfall of Dontrelle Willis. Ohlendorf is a (usually) solid at home, 6 inn 3 run type pitcher and with the way Detroit is lagging lately, I doubt they get anything more. Pittsburgh should have a relatively rested bullpen. Cant say anything close to the same for Detroit.

963 - Boston RL +125 @ Philly (1unit)

Happ is somewhat similar in style and limited pitch selection to Bastardo (I was fading Bastrdo in his third start). He isnt quite as dominant though. Boston will probably have similar success against Happ as well. The best thing is that we get a shutdown pitcher, in Beckett, that is in top form and well versed in keeping free swingers off balance and frustrated.

968 - KC +115 vs Cincinnati (1 unit)

I know I dont have an edge in the pitching matchup here but just about everyone has been keeping the Reds in a scoring drought lately. I have been looking for spots to fade them lately. Problem is there schedule has been really easy recently. I think Bannister is decent enough and I feel KC is starting to bust out of thier recent failures. I think we got a better than 50/50 shot to cash on a live home dog here.

Whats everybody think about the late game tomorrow night. Im leaning Cleveland. Probably will be a dog by game time. I thought it took an awfully long time for the Redbirds to get to Ohka. He sucks and they made him look pretty good. Not impressed with Cleveland either so the under might be in order too. I smell a small risk two team parlay.... Cleveland w/the under. Any thoughts?

[NattyBumpo]

Adding:

968 - Cincy/KC under 8.5 (-125) (1.5 units)

Gotta get over my fear of totals. Especially on a game like this. Smells like a looooow scoring game easy. Im due to hit an under.

[Dirty]

Get it done man... I have found unders very profitable in the Interleague so far