Mike's season long college football information

[idiotspp]

Howdy ladies -

I wanted to start my football thread early incase anyone is as fired up about it as I am. I will attempt to give you a little background into what I do.

Weeks 1 & 2 - I use a specific method to find my games during the first two weeks. It's rather tedious to explain so I will not get into it for the sake of this thread. I have had very good success over the years doing it this way.

The remainder of the season I use the same database I have used for quite a few years. I am not sure what you call me as I have heard several people put a name to what I attempt to do.

For lack of boring you to death, I will keep this short. I have developed a very large mathematical spreadsheet that uses a ton of statistical variables, that when used together, in multiple combination, produces a play/non play against the line. Forgive my grammar and all that shit!

99 times out of a 100, I let the lines moves do their thing during the week. I then make my selections on game days according to what my spreadsheets tell me. I must state, I do understant all the "pro" theories about closing lines, getting the best number, middles, blah blah. My best response is we all do it how we do it and what works best for each of us. This is my way.

I thought I would add my info here incase it may assist others in bouncing their plays against mine. Although I won't have my final plays until game day, I am more than willing to give you feedback on any game you want to know about. For example, if you have Texas -8 and want to know what I think about that game according to my info, I can give you a strong opinion on what it looks like before game day if that helps.

Week 3 - I will only have side plays. I don't start totals until week 4.

Week 4 - end of reg season I will have sides and totals.

Bowls - not my specialty. I am usually in hoop mode full time so won't be of much assistance here.

I believe if someone is going to use someone elses plays, or atleast consider using them as validation sources, that they should know as much about that person's plays as possible. For this reason exactly, over the next few weeks, I am going to post my actual spreadsheet plays for the last two seasons. I will post them in the same format that I will use this year. I hope this may help you see any patterns that can assist you. It will be a lot of data, so simply skip over it if you don't care.

Disclaimer: The info I am posting regarding the last two seasons are no indication of future results. They should be used for informational purposes only. These could achieve the same results, better, or much worse. I can only tell you that I have had success in the past. Tread carefully.

For those wondering why I won't share all my years results, it is because of time. It is very time consuming to post them here. Remember none of you know me personally so be skeptical. I know I would be.

Please feel free to ask me any questions regarding football or anything else. I hope we all have a great football season......

[idiotspp]

2007 - 2008 college football regular season plays:

* I am starting with week 3 since that is when I use my spreadsheets. I will post weeks 1 & 2 plays for the 2009-2010 season in this thread.

* please forgive any typo's, I am rushing to get this on here. I will give a summary of the full season at the end of each year after I finish posting them all.

Week 3:

Dogs (10 - 5)
Mary +15.5 L
AF +8.5 W
Pit +11.5 W
Buff +32.5 W
Ohio +22.5 W
WM +19 L
UCF +17 W
Army +20 W
E. Car +1 L
Latech +34 W
SMU +3 L
Kentucky +4.5 W
Wyo +12 W
Duke +15.5 W
Fresno +16.5 L

Faves (1 - 2)
Fla -7 W
Ala -3.5 L
BYU -6.5 L

Best of the Best sides(3 - 1)
Ohio +22.5 W
Latech +34 W
SMU +3 L
AF +8.5 W

Note: Best of the Best is my way of showing what plays show up in more result columns on my spreadsheets. Does not mean a pile on game.

Overall sides week 3 (11 - 7)

[idiotspp]

Week 4:

Dogs (7 - 4)
E. Car +24 W
Akron +2.5 W
Ball St +24.5 W
Army +26 W
AF +14 L
Col St +6.5 L
Kentucky +7.5 W
Buff +2 L
Ark St +19 L
GA +3 W
Iowa +7 W

Faves (8 - 3)
USF -11.5 W
Clem -7 W
Gatech -3.5 L
Wyo -4 L
Mich St -8 W
WF -3.5 W
Penn St -2 L
Kan -35 W
Fla Atl -7 W
Cin -24 W
Ore -18.5 W

Best of best sides (1 - 3)
Gatech -3.5 L
AF +14 L
Ark St +19 L
Fla Atl -7 W

Overall sides, week 4 (15 - 7)

Overs (5 - 0)
Lville O63.5 W
Akron O45 W
Neb O62 W
Hous O64 W
ULL O63 W

Unders (5 - 5)
USF U51 W
BC U45.5 L
Ohio U44 L
WF U42 L
Col U49 W
Buf U53 L
Aub U55 L
No Tex U62.5 W
TCU U 52 W
UNLV U48.5 W

Best of the best totals (6 - 1)
Lville O63.5 W
Akron O45 W
Neb O62 W
Hous O64 W
Buf U53 L
ULL O63 W
No Tex U62.5 W

Overall totals, week 4 (10 - 5)

[idiotspp]

Week 5:

Dogs (7 - 8)
NC +18.5 W
Buff +14 L
Duke +24 W
Bay +16.5 L
AF +2.5 L
Fla Atl +24 L
Syr +1 L
Ohio +2 L
Gatech +3 W
Utep +3 W
Pit +6.5 L
E. Car +13 W
Wash +19.5 W
Wash St +2.5 L
Latech +12.5 W

Faves (2 - 0)
Ark -3.5 W
Cin -14 W

Best of the best sides (3 - 2)
AF +2.5 L
Gatech +3 W
Utep +3 W
Wash St +2.5 L
Latech +12/5 W

Overall sides, week 5 (9 - 8)

Overs (2 - 3)
CM O61 L
NC St O69 L
Ark O64.5 W
Troy O67 L
Vandy O46 W

Unders (2 - 4)
Uconn U44.5 L
Vatech U43 W
Army U46 L
GA U48.5 L
TCU U45.5 W
Virg U40 L

Best of the best totals (3 - 3)
Vatech U43 W
Army U46 L
NC St O69 L
Ark O64.5 W
Troy O67 L
Vandy O46 W

Overall totals, week 5 (4 - 7)

[idiotspp]

Week 6:

Dogs (12 - 6)
Kentucky +4.5 L
Minn +12 L
CM +12 W
Van +7 L
Temp +3.5 W
Latech +12 L
NC St +18 W
Tex +12 W
Iowa +10 L
Fresno +3 W
SD St +12.5 W
Tul +5.5 W
Bay +8 L
Akron +9.5 W
E. Car +3.5 W
Fla +8 W
Cin +3.5 W
Utep +3 W

Faves (4 - 5)
Gatech -3 L
Mich -28 L
Ill -2 W
Mich St -15.5 L
AZ St -9 L
ULL -9.5 L
Ohio St -7 W
AF -5.5 W
Boise -25 W

Best of the best sides (5 - 3)
Gatech -3 L
Ill -2 W
Temp +3.5 W
Latech +12 L
Iowa +10 L
Fla +8 W
Cin +3.5 W
AF -5.5 W

Overall sides, week 6 (16 - 11)

Overs (4 - 2)
SC O56.5 W
Ball St O68 W
Temp O54 L
Nev O52.5 W
Troy O53.5 L
ULL O65 W

Unders (4 - 4)
Aub U43 W
Duke U50 L
FSU U45.5 W
USF U45 L
Army U45 W
Bay U48 L
MTS U45 W
Haw U68 L

Best of the best totals (5 - 2)
SC O56.5 W
Ball St O68 W
FSU U45.5 W
Bay U48 L
Troy O53.5 L
MTS U45 W
ULL O65 W

Overall totals, week 6 (8 - 6)

I'll pick up with Week 7 later.

Mike

[Cooper]

This is good stuff and I believe anything you share will be useful.

I don't follow, but I always consider others' opinions/positions and weigh them against my thoughts.

[Dirty]

Good Fucking Shit

[Finance]

Man this is great - looking at all of those lines makes me want kickoff tomorrow!!!

[idiotspp]

This is good stuff and I believe anything you share will be useful.

I don't follow, but I always consider others' opinions/positions and weigh them against my thoughts.

Amen bro, this is the exact reason I will be posting this stuff. Not for personal use but to possibly match up one's plays against someone elses for validation purposes maybe.

[idiotspp]

Good Fucking Shit

Not sure about good dirty, but it's data atleast. To bad past results didn't guarantee future success, ha!

[idiotspp]

Man this is great - looking at all of those lines makes me want kickoff tomorrow!!!

I can't fuckin wait!

[idiotspp]

Week 7:

Dogs (13 - 6)
Navy +4 W
SJ St +15.5 W
Min +6.5 W
EM +4 L
Gtech +2.5 W
Iowa +3.5 W
NM +3 W
Miss St +7 L
Tex AM +10 L
Rice +22.5 W
Uconn +3 W
Ida +9.5 L
AF +3 W
Temple +11 W
Ore St +14 W
Tul +2.5 L
ULL +10 L
Aub +3 W
Kan St +4 W

Faves (1 - 4)
Ala -6.5 L
Kan -26 W
Tulsa -14 L
ULM -7.5 L
Latech -7.5 L

Best of the best sides (6 - 1)
Navy +4 W
Gtech +2.5 W
NM +3 W
Tex AM +10 L
Uconn +3 W
AF +3 W
Kan St +4 W

Overall sides, week 7 (14 - 10)

Overs (2 - 2)
BG O57.5 W
Hou O65.5 W
Tulsa O71 L
ULM O61 L

Unders (2 - 4)
WF U44 L
SJ St U67 L
Duke U44.5 L
Utah U54.5 W
NC U47.5 W
TCU U46 L

Best of the best totals (3 - 5)
SJ St U67 L
Duke U44.5 L
BG O57.5 W
NC U47.5 W
Hou O65.5 W
TCU U46 L
Tulsa O71 L
ULM O61 L

Overall totals, week 7 (4 - 6)

[idiotspp]

Week 8:

Dogs (11 - 10)
EM +10 L
Uconn +3 W
Temple +6.5 W
CM +17 L
Iowa +7 L
Ala +1 W
Vandy +13 W
Wyo +2.5 L
Tex AM +1.5 W
ND +16.5 L
Ucla +3 W
BG +4.5 W
Buff +3.5 L
Tulsa +2.5 L
Sj St +13 L
Stan +13 W
UAB +12.5 L
Latech +16.5 W
Kan St +3 W
Tul +6 W
Ida +8 L

Faves (5 - 3)
USF -1.5 L
Ark -5.5 W
Tex Tech -3.5 L
Fla -7 W
E. Car -6 L
Kan -3 W
ULM -13 W
So Miss -3.5 W

Best of the best sides (3 - 3)
USF -1.5 L
EM +10 L
Tex AM +1.5 W
Buf +3.5 L
Kan -3 W
Stan +13 W

Overall sides, week 8 (16 - 13)

Overs (3 - 6)
Temple O49 L
WM O68 L
Nev O61.5 L
Troy O64.5 L
ULL O60 W
Fresno O57.5 L
Tol O61.5 W
ULM O50.5 L
Unlv O47 W

Unders (4 - 0)
Syr U55 W
Stan U54 W
Mary U44.5 W
Sd St U54 W

Best of the best totals (5 - 5)
WM O68 L
Nev O61.5 L
Troy O64.5 L
Syr U55 W
ULL O60 W
Fresno O57.5 L
Stan U54 W
Tol O61.5 W
ULM O50.5 L
Unlv O47 W

Overall totals, week 8 (7 - 6)

[idiotspp]

Week 9:

Dogs (8 - 6)
Ind +9 L
Ball St +13.5 W
Miss St +13 W
Unlv +10.5 W
Mem +1.5 W
EM +5.5 W
Uconn +4 W
Bay +26.5 L
ULM +6 W
Rice +9 L
Stan +14 L
SC +2.5 L
Duke +17 L
Utep +6 W

Faves (7 - 2)
WF -5 W
WV -6.5 W
Ark -41 W
Latech -2.5 W
Clem -3.5 W
Aub -18 L
Ucla -5.5 L
Kan -2.5 W
Az St -3 W

Best of the best sides (2 - 0)
WV -6.5 W
EM +5.5 W

Overall sides, week 9 (15 - 8)

Overs (3 - 1)
Tulsa O71.5 L
ULM O55 W
BG O60 W
Tol O57 W

Unders (5 - 3)
Col U60.5 W
WF U50.5 W
E. Car U57 W
Kan St U58.5 L
Virg U44 L
MTS U55.5 L
FSU U49.5 W
Haw U80 W

Best of the best totals (7 - 1)
Col U60.5 W
Tulsa O71.5 L
E. Car U57 W
ULM O55 W
BG O60 W
Tol O57 W
FSU U49.5 W
Haw U80 W

Overall totals, week 9 (8 - 4)

I'll pick back up with week 10 in a little bit...........

[idiotspp]

Week 10:

Dogs (7 - 8)
temp +9.5 L
Ball St +6.5 L
Purd +8 W
WF +1.5 W
Syr +13 W
Iowa +2 W
Buff +6.5 W
Sj St +26 L
Mary +2.5 L
Ut St +20.5 W
NM +4 L
Az St +8.5 L
Tul +6.5 L
Ore St +16.5 L
SD St +4 W

Faves (6 - 1)
Nev -7 L
E. Car -5.5 W
AF -17 W
UCF -14 W
Tex -1.5 W
Mizz -3.5 W
Ark -5.5 W

Best of the best sides (3 - 1)
Purd +8 W
Buff +6.5 W
NM +4 L
Ark -5.5 W

Overall sides, week 10 (13 - 9)

Overs (5 - 0)
ND O58 W
Rice O71 W
Ten O65 W
Ut St O55.5 W
Tol O60.5 W

Unders (5 - 1)
WF U43.5 W
Iowa U47 W
Bay U65 W
NC U45.5 W
TCU U44 W
BC U39.5 L

Best of the best totals (7 - 0)
Iowa U47 W
ND O58 W
Rice O71 W
Bay U65 W
Ten O65 W
Ut St O55.5 W
Tol O60.5 W

Overall totals, week 10 (10 - 1)

[idiotspp]

Week 11:

Dogs (5 - 1)
EM +3 L
Rice +6.5 W
ILL +15.5 W
Ark St +6 W
Mem +17 W
Sd St +3 W

Faves (6 - 7)
Ind -2.5 L
Mich -3 L
Ark -1 L
AF -4 W
Tex -6.5 W
Cin -7 W
Kent St -3.5 L
E. Car -6.5 L
OK -38.5 L
Fla -7 W
Kan -5 W
BC -7 L
Ore St -3.5 W

Best of the best sides (1 - 2)
AF -4 W
Kent St -3.5 L
BC -7 L

Overall sides, week 11 (11 - 8)

Overs (5 - 1)
WM O60 W
Akron O50 W
EM O57.5 W
SMU O70 W
MTS O61 L
Navy O70.5 W

Unders (1 - 4)
BYU U46.5 L
NC U45 L
Col U47.5 L
FSU U40 L
Stan U52 W

Best of the best totals (5 - 3)
WM O60 W
Akron O50 W
EM O57.5 W
NC U45 L
SMU O70 W
FSU U40 L
MTS O61 L
Navy O70.5 W

Overall totals, week 11 (6 - 5)

[idiotspp]

Week 12:

I was unavailable to make any plays during week 12 of the 2007-2008 football season.

I will pick back up and finish the 2007-2008 year shortly and provide a summary of all plays for the season.

[idiotspp]

Weeks 13:

Dogs (8 - 7)
MTS +13 L
Wyo +3.5 L
Mary +1.5 W
Buff +2 W
Tenn +2.5 W
Utah +4.5 L
Utep +21 W
Rice +13.5 W
Gtech +4 L
Fresno +1 W
Sj St +3.5 W
FSU +14 L
Fla Int +10 L
Ala +6 L
Sd St +13 W

Faves (1 - 2)
Miss St -4.5 L
Vatech -3.5 W
Clem -3 L

Best of the best sides (3 - 1)
Mary +1.5 W
Buff +2 W
Utah +4.5 L
Sj St +3.5 W

Overall sides, week 13 (9 - 9)

Overs (4 - 4)
Troy O58.5 L
Akron O62.5 W
BG O71 L
Mem O69 W
Rice O77 W
Ball St O56 L
Sj St O62.5 L
UAB O59 W

Unders (3 - 2)
Mary U47.5 W
Virg U40.5 L
WM U49 W
NC U51 W
TCU U50 L

Best of the best totals (5 - 4)
Troy O58.5 L
BG O71 L
WM U49 W
Mem O69 W
Rice O77 W
NC U51 W
Ball St O56 L
Sj St O62.5 L
UAB O59 W

Overall totals, week 13 (6 - 5)

[idiotspp]

Week 14:

Dogs (2 - 2)
Fla Atl +15 W
Latech +7 L
Ore St +1 W
Sd St +16.5 L

Faves (2 - 3)
Fresno -13.5 L
Navy -14 W
WV -28 L
Okla -3 W
Az St -7 L

Best of the best sides (0 - 1)
Az St -7 L

Overall sides, week 14 (4 - 5)

Overs (1 - 1)
Navy O64.5 L
Troy O63.5 W

Unders (2 - 1)
BC U48 W
BYU U58.5 L
AZ U56.5 W

Best of the best totals (1 - 2)
Navy O64.5 L
Troy O63.5 W
BYU U58.5 L

Overall totals, week 14 (3 - 2)

[idiotspp]

2007-2008 college football summary:

Total sides played = 228

Record = 133 - 95 (58.3%)

Best of the best sides = 30 - 18 (62.5%)

Dogs = 90 - 63 (58.8%)

Faves = 43 - 32 (57.3%)

Dogs made up 67.1% of total sides played

Faves made up 32.9% of total sides played

Total totals played = 115

Record = 67 - 48 (58.3%)

Best of the best totals = 47 - 26 (64.4%)

Overs = 34 - 20 (63%)

Unders = 33 - 28 (54.1%)

Overs made up 47% of total totals played

Unders made up 53% of total totals played

I will pick up with the 2008-2009 season next week. This will give anyone who cares two full seasons of data for them to evaluate any trends I may have and hopefully make them more comfortable when comparing their plays to anything I post. Do I expect to hit 58% of sides and totals every year........fuck no. My goal is, and always will be, 55%.