NCAAB Season Thread

[ThocProcess]

1.12.09

Number in ( ) is book opener. The other number is the projection. HFA, injuries and situations are not included.

notre dame
louisville	-4.29	(-6.5)
texas
oklahoma	-2.19	(-4)
samford
col charletson	-11.3	(-15)
tenn chat
citadel	4.15	(3.5)
davidson
app st	18.34	(11)
tenn martin
se miss st	12.74	(10)

[ThocProcess]

1.13.09

buffalo
akron	-0.27	(-6)
indiana
ohio st	-15.11	(-17)
bradley
indiana st	7.71	(2.5)
florida st
nc state	1.01	(-4.5)
n illinois
ball st	-3.64	(-4)
c mich
e mich	1.27	(-4)
memphis
tulsa	7.95	4.5
kansas st
kansas	-0.15	(-8.5)
c flor
uab	-8.53	(-10.5)
n iowa
evansville	-2.72	(-4)
kentucky
tennessee	-0.94	(-7)
georgia st
odu	-8.41	(-12.5)
tcu
byu	-12.43	(-14.4)
sacramento st
northern colorado	-10.36	(-15)

[ThocProcess]

Forum was down so i couldn't post any earlier.

1.14.09

michigan st
penn st	8.05	(5)
south flo
pitt	-17.17	(-20)
duke
georg tech	16.75	(10.5)
ohio u
miami oh	-6.92	(-10)
hofstra
drexel	0.06	(-4.5)
richmond
virg tech	-0.3	(-8.5)
st josephs
st bonaventure	5.74	(3.5)
va common
towson	14.41	(9)
temple
penn	12.36	(10.5)
george wash
duquesne	-8.56	(-10.5)
bowling green
kent st	-0.18	(-7)
nc wilmington
james madison	-15.05	(-16.5)
toledo
w mich	-3.55	(-11)
george mason
wm and mary	10	(6)
la salle
charlotte	0.12	(-5)
fordham
dayton	-21.66	(-21)
rutgers
cincinnati	-7.59	(-8)
syracuse
georgetown	-4.37	(-6.5)
wvu
marshall	17.99	(13)
san diego st
wyoming	13.01	(6.5)
so miss
tulane	9.78	(4)
arkansas
mississippi	0.65	(-2.5)
smu
rice	2.27	(-3)
florida
auburn	5.2	(2.5)
s carolina
lsu	3.69	(-3.5)
drake
illinois st	-3.52	(-8)
nebraska
iowa st	4.49	(-1)
s illinois
creighton	-7.81	(-9)
umass
stl	0.35	(-3.5)
alabama
miss st	-4.94	(-8)
wichita st
missouri st	1.2	(-4)
georgia
vanderbilt	-8.72	(-9.5)
michigan
illinois	-4.39	(-6.5)
colorado
missouri	-17.41	(-16)
maryland
miami	-4.01	(-8.5)
unlv
colorado st	9.27	(8)
houston
utep	3.21	(-3.5)
wake
boston college	8.52	(2.5)
baylor
texas a&m	8.27	(1)
cs northridge
cal riverside	6.1	(-1)
utah
air force	14.14	(8.5)
elon
davidson	-22.99	(-23.5)

I have taken

1. Cincinnati -8 (-105)
2. Davidson -23 (-105)
3. James Madison -15 (-105)

[ThocProcess]

Adding more chalk:

4. Dayton -21
5. Missouri -17

[ThocProcess]

1. Cincinnati -8 (-105) Winner
2. Davidson -23 (-105) Loser
3. James Madison -15 (-105) Winner
4. Dayton -21 Loser
5. Missouri -17 Winner

3-2 60% +.9 units

[ThocProcess]

from now on, number on the left is my projection, number on the right is book opener. fla intl
fla atl	-2.44	-4.5
purdue
northwestern	5.76	4
connecticut
st johns	15.54	12
northeastern
delaware	7.59	3
denver
n texas	-2.91	-9
valparaiso
il-chicago	-8.08	-11
butler
loyola-chicago	13.62	7
xavier
rhode island	5.04	1.5
ark-little rock
la lafayette	4.58	-2.5
cleveland st
wisc-gb	4.3	0
troy st
south alabama	-9.05	-12
mid tenn st
w kentucky	1.48	-4
la monroe
arkansas st	-14	-15
youngstown
wisc-milwauk	-6.44	-9.5
idaho
new mexico st	-1.18	-8
santa clara
gonzaga	-18.17	-19
washington st
oregon st	11.33	6
UNC
virginia	15.64	15.5
fresno st
utah st	-14.58	-16
minnesota
wisconsin	-1.49	-7
marymount
st mary's	-23.78	-29.5
pacific
cal-irvine	9.6	3
uc davis
fullerton st	-1.13	-7.5
pepperdine
san diego	-14.71	-19.5
boise st
nevada	-2.64	-9
washington
oregon	11.76	5
arizona st
usc	6.74	-1
san francisco
portland	-4.14	-7
arizona
ucla	-5.55	-11.5
fairfield
st peters	11.43	6.5
col charleston
wofford	3.94	2.5
appalachian st
chattanooga	-2.95	-6
citadel
furman	7.73	1.5
iona
niagara	-6.85	-10
georgia southern
unc greensboro	10.68	0
rider
canisius	6.67	4
siena
marist	12.42	7.5
w carolina
samford	7.4	1
tenn-martin
tenn tech	0.79	-2
murray st
jacksonville st	1.55	-2
morehead st
se missouri st	11.08	7.5
montana st
weber st	-3.03	-7
e wash
northern colo	-0.05	-7
e kentucky
e illinois	7.31	0
montana
idaho st	0.99	-1.5

[ThocProcess]

Virginia +16 (-105)

[Finance]

Hey Process - thanks for putting all of this out there - quick question...
why would you play UVA when your projection is so close to the line, when there are many others that appear to be off 7+ points?

Seems like a better play for example would be Minn +7 when the projection is +1.5.....??? Am I looking at it right?

Thanks again for posting - I'm not questioning because I'm on the other side of the UVA game either:idk - just wondering about your methodology.....

[ThocProcess]

Hey Process - thanks for putting all of this out there - quick question...
why would you play UVA when your projection is so close to the line, when there are many others that appear to be off 7+ points?

Seems like a better play for example would be Minn +7 when the projection is +1.5.....??? Am I looking at it right?

Thanks again for posting - I'm not questioning because I'm on the other side of the UVA game either:idk - just wondering about your methodology.....

Like I said in my first post in this thread, home court advantage isn't included in those lines.

In that example you typed out, say HCA is worth 5 for Wisconsin, Minnesota should really be +6.5 which is just about where the line is.

[ThocProcess]

2. Arkansas st. -13.5 (-105)
3. Utah st -14.5 (-105)

[junkmansports]

Good Stuff how much of a difference does there have to be before you have a play?

Thank

Junk