Week 11 NCAA Hoops

[NattyBumpo]

Monday action:

733 - Canisius +8 @ Fairfield

Concerns are the travel and quick turn/early start on the tail of a tough road series, but thats well compensated for in the line. Id make this line 4 to 5 if it was a normal situation.

These teams played a typically post New Years (Jan 2nd) uuuuuugly game at Canisius in which Fairfield came away with a two point win. But it was very disgustingly aberrational for the resume Canisius has amassed since then. Thier defensive acumen and gelling experience has them sneaking up on teams in this conference. Since the Jan 2nd debacle they have gone 3-1 and 4-0 ATS. They have shown terrific roadability this year as well. These teams are quickly going in opposite directions at this point in conference play as Fairfield has gone 2-2 with a 0-4 ATS since thier last meeting with Canisius.

Another concern is that Fairfield might be able to outrebound and has an offensive edge but looking at Canisius' road resume should give an optimistic view of recieving 8 points in this contest. This years road achievement are the following: a 2 pt win at Buffalo (proving to be a top MAC team this year), forcing an overtime session at Duquesne (as a 10 point underdog), beating So.Miss on the road (as 11 point dog) and following that up the next day with a 15 pt win over New Orleans (as a 7.5 fav, but showing the depth and stamina that could carry them in this quick turn matchup), an ATS cover but loss @ St Bonaventure, they recently slaughtered a bad Marist team on the road and covered the spread at Siena in which they battled valiantly for at least the first half.

729 - Western Kentucky -2 @ Middle Tennessee

If the Blue Raiders cant win or even cover against FIU or FAU, how will they beat the Colonels? The concern here is that it might seem too easy and squarish.

Good luck and Peace.

[Old-Timer]

Good Luck

[NattyBumpo]

Thanks OT. Best of luck to you as well.

Adding:

725 - Syracuse -3 @ Notre Dame (1.65 units to win 1.5)

I was waiting to see the line action on this game. Cant camp out at the book or in front of my computer all day so Im taking the -3 now and figure if it goes to -2.5 or 2 it wont stay there for long.

Biggest thought that keeps resounding in my gut is ND has played over its head so far. Always seem to let thier poor basketball IQ ways hurt them when the public starts to believe they might be better than they really are. Im sure I will hit the nerve of some Irish lovers, so be it. Thats my opinion and Im sticking to it.

Protestants beat the Catholics..... history repeats itself in South Bend tonight. (Oh snap!!!)

Also adding a half unit to my W.Kentucky play.

Heres my updated card for Monday:

Canisius +8 (1.1 to win 1 unit)
W.Kentucky -2 (1.65 to win 1.5 units)
Syracuse -3 (1.65 to win 1.5 units)

Good luck and Peace.

[NattyBumpo]

Adding:

739 - Rider +8 @ Iona w/under 132.5 (0.4 to win 1.04 units)

Im really high on the under with the home team playing awesome defense in conference and having a low shooting percentage on the top of it. Think the side +8 correlates nicely as well. I am a big fan of playing road revenge when getting points and a nice spot during this portion of the season.

[NattyBumpo]

Wouldve been a good day if I were playing horseshoes....

2-2 with a +0.45 profit at any rate. Back to the drawing board.

Tuesday action:

510 - Hofstra -3 (-120) vs George Mason

521 - Boston College +7 (-120) @ Miami

515 - Oklahoma +8.5 @ Texas A&M w/under 137.5 (2 tmr: 0.4 to win 1.04)

Ill either look like a genius or an idiot. But neither would be true no matter what the result.

Good luck and Peace.

[Dirty]

Good Luck man

[NattyBumpo]

Thanks Dirty. I forgot to add my small GT action here but I did play it for a half unit and burned a few calories ta boot. Ha ha.

Wednesday action:

739 - James Madison +8 (-120) vs Drexel

Gonna give em one more chance. Short changed G.Mason today, theyve suddenly become an offensive machine, but that makes JMUs second half effort to nearly come back from way behind to them last Saturday even more impressive. Madison has played some good teams on the road tough lately, and I feel theres some hidden upside here. Not a bad spot to take 8 pts against a low scoring Drexel team. I think theyre ripe to pay dividends.

743 - Buffalo +4.5 @ Kent St.

I wont even buy the half point. I think Buffalo will probably win but getting insurance never hurts. Buffalo dominating the stats in conference and rising in stock price while Kent is struggling offensively and burning money for its backers. Unless you want to play the due factor on both teams at the same time (usually works better in pros but bad business in college) you cant be liking Kent here. Buffalo is experienced and proven on the road.

753 - So.Miss +10.5 @ UAB

Thinking UAB is overated and So.Miss is good enough to give em a fight. So Miss covered 2 out of 3 against what could turn out to be the 3 best teams in this conference (if UAB slips down the ranks like I think they could). They are also a desperate 0-3 w/some conference tournament revenge to settle. UAB is 3-0, only covering in one of these against (presumably) league cupcakes. Blazers had to pull a rabbit outa thier asses to beat SMU on the road while to the north So.Miss was given UTEP a formidable fight.

813 - Nevada -4.5 @ Boise St. w/over 152.5 (2 tm parlay:0.4 units to win 1.04)

High scoring, typical high defensive percentage WAC game. Ill take the better team and lots of scoring with charity stripe bonus time at the end. Both teams take 60 shots a game with a high percentage and average 10+ offensive rebounds.

Good luck and Peace.

[Finance]

Good Luck Natty - Love the JMU play (especially since they're my alma mater....LOL)

[jimbojpc]

NattyBumpo Good Looking Card tonight. Bol Nat Sweep em!

[NattyBumpo]

Thanks guys.

JMU and Buffalo ..... started out good and then (Im sticking my toungue out and making diahrea sounds for a visual I dont know how to spell). What really sucks is that JMU will probably get hot after Ive been jaded twice. Gotta let it go though.

2-2 for Wednesday (-0.26 juice)

Thursday action:

505 - Louisville +1 @ Seton Hall

553 - Wofford -2 (-120) @ Citadel

Considering Indiana and N.Texas. Id welcome any thoughts on these. Im gonna wait and ponder these til closer to game time. Maybe the market will help make my decision easier. If not, Ill get a better number if I decide to play em.

[Micelli]

BOL Tonight

[NattyBumpo]

Thanks Mic, luck wasnt enough to overcome some bad decisions lately.

Hopefully these will turn the tide.

0-1-1 (-1.1) for Thursday

Enough whining...

Friday action:

828 - Wisc Mil/Youngstown St under 137

834 - Canisius -4 (-120) vs Rider

Good luck and Peace.

[NattyBumpo]

Adding:

831 - Wisc GB +6 @ Cleveland St.

839 - Iona -3 @ Manhattan

[Micelli]

we match up on a few for once!!!

[NattyBumpo]

we match up on a few for once!!!

Played your 1st half stuff and pounded Canisius 2nd half too Micelli. Love the gravy on the side. Dont usually post that kind of stuff. Not enough time to get em in and post in most cases. Thanks though, Ill probably follow your first half stuff on my offshore accnt on most occasions that I can catch them before tip offs.

2-1-1 (+0.90) for Friday

My fantasy as a sports better is to be able to stop time. Everything freezes while I study and cap games. Lines cant change and I cant lose sleep or take time away from the normal things I have to do in life. When Im done and comfortable with my picks I can start time again and continue my life. Ahhhh if only it were true. Degenerate fantasies ha ha....dont worry I fantasize about the normal stuff as well.

Saturday action (big card):

531 - Mississippi St. Pk @ Alabama

552 - Charlotte/LaSalle under 145.5

568 - Detroit +1 vs Wright St.

585 - Arkansas +16 @ Kentucky

591 - Michigan +10.5 @ Purdue

599 - Texas -2 @ UConn

665 - Arizona +10 @ Arizona St.

696 - Morehouse St./E.Kentucky over 130.5


Good luck and Peace.

[jimbojpc]

Big Card today Nat: BOL Get the broom ready fell a Sweep a coming. Texas is a a (looker) Has me puzzled as it seems to EASY?

[NattyBumpo]

Appreciate the support Jimbo

2-5 yesterday

Might be back when I feel more comfortable with my capping efforts and dont have as many real life stress factors taking up my time and mental capacity. I think Ill end this dissapointing week and take a posting vacation. Im scaling my bets back too. Just some lunch money plays today but Ill list em for the hell of it to round out the week.

Creighton -4.5
Youngstown St. +1
Pittsburgh +2.5
Ga.Tech +3.5

They're all half unit type wagers and as you can see I didn't even buy the hook on the small spreads.... obviously my heart isnt in it today (FWIW). I will surely be back if I start heating up and my personal distractions get squared away. Natty just needs some quiet time and a vacation.

Good luck and Peace.